Here’s a New Year’s Resolution for the Climate Community – Stop Deluding Yourself

The World Resource Institute is like a dog with a bone. In this case the bone is the notion that global warming can still be limited to 1.5 degrees C. We can only hope that going beyond that limit doesn’t permanently damage the environment, because beyond it we will go.

The State of Climate Action 2023 report offers 42 progress benchmarks. Sadly, only one benchmark is on track: the percentage share of EVs in light-duty vehicle sales.

Six others are going in the right direction but off track.  These include zero-carbon electric generation, EV fleet metrics, ruminant meat productivity, reforestation, and the percentage share of global GHG emissions under mandatory corporate climate risk disclosure.

Twenty-four metrics are going in the right direction but are well off track. Key ones include GHG agriculture emissions, natural gas and coal in electric generation, and total global climate finance.

Six benchmarks need to make a complete U-turn including carbon intensity of steel production and the share of kilometers traveled by passenger cars.

Insufficient data exists for five metrics. Don’t ask me why you create a metric that can’t be measured.

1.5 degrees C was a worthy and perhaps a necessary goal. However, at this point it’s unachievable. The rationale response: reassess and realign your goals. I’d start by using the 42 metrics to conduct a “post-mortem.”

I know climate activists will say – we must limit warming to 1.5 degrees C or the world as we know it will end. It may wreak havoc, but it’s better to accept and plan for it, than to close your eyes and wish it weren’t so.

Here’s the reality: financing levels will invariably fall short of desired targets. Fossil fuels will not be quickly phased out. And because of insufficient grid infrastructure investments, even clean power generation isn’t likely to reach its longer-term targets.

That segues into the two major roadblocks to achieving any climate change goal: infrastructure and the need to significantly change human behavior. Infrastructure upgrades require decades even when the will and sufficient funds exist. Major shifts in human behavior take generations, and there is little society can do to accelerate it.

The climate community needs to admit that these roadblocks exist and integrate them within the strategy. Generally, that means finding solutions that require neither.

Here’s an example. Weaning society off of fossil fuels will happen gradually and take decades. However, getting society to make slight behavioral modifications to reduce their energy consumption can realistically be accomplished in a much shorter period of time.

Focus on those types of solutions and we’ll be more likely to achieve future targets.

#climatechange #globalwarming #stateofclimate