The Energy Collective Group
This group brings together the best thinkers on energy and climate. Join us for smart, insightful posts and conversations about where the energy industry is and where it is going.
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How important is the accuracy of climate science?
Global temperatures have risen and continue to rise. But what do climate scientists predict will be the result?
Global temperatures have already risen 1.1 degrees C and are heading upwards. But do we know exactly what does that means?
Let’s look at what climate scientists think it means for the future of heat waves.
According to the most recent IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, it is believed that for every 0.5 degree C (0.9 degrees F) of increased global temps, there will be discernable increases in the frequency and severity of heat extremes, heavy rainfall events, and regional droughts.
Prior to humans exerting influence on the climate, heat waves generally occurred every 10 years. With a 1.5 degrees C rise in temperatures, heat waves are estimated to occur 4.1 times more frequently. With a 4 degree C rise they are expected to be almost 10 times more likely.
The intensity of heat waves is also projected to rise. The estimates indicate with a 4 degree C rise in global temperatures heat waves will get 5.1 degrees (9.2 degrees F) hotter.
Climate science remains a fairly new discipline and no one really knows how accurate these estimates are. In fact, they’re likely to be wrong, but that is irrelevant. The issue isn’t whether heat waves will happen 4 times or 2 times more frequently. What we are certain of is that they will happen more often. We can already see the changing weather patterns today. And keep in mind, it may be just as likely that the estimates or low versus high.
If the science was accurate, we’d known exactly what we were dealing with and how much time we have to take corrective actions. The point is the science isn’t necessarily accurate and that warrants a sense of urgency.
The good news is that the more estimates we develop the better we will be able to gauge climate science’s accuracy, allowing us to fine tune the models. This will give us a higher degree of predictability. The question is - will that fine tuning come in time?
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