Tripling global installed renewables capacity to 11,000 gigawatts by the end of the decade is the surest way to keep global climate action on track, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest net zero roadmap – a scenario where 2030 is the new 2050 and electricity is the “new oil.”
The IEA’s 2023 Net Zero Roadmap sets out a global pathway to keep the 1.5 ̊C goal in reach, ratcheting up the task ahead since it was first mapped out in 2021, when the the IEA famously declared there could be no new coal, oil or gas projects to reach net zero by 2050.
Nearly two-and-a-half years later, this call has not been heeded, with the 2023 Update instead accounting for two years of “increased investment in fossil fuels and stubbornly high emissions.”
In Australia, alone, a report from The Australia Institute this year counted 116 new coal, oil and gas projects in the development pipeline, collectively threatening 1.4 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases a year by 2030.
Thus, the IEA’s 2023 roadmap becomes just the latest major report to warn that staying on track to keep warming below 1.5°C now means almost all countries must move forward their targeted net zero dates.
It also hinges on mobilising a significant increase in investment, especially in emerging and developing economies. In the new zero pathway, global clean energy spending rises from $US1.8 trillion in 2023 to $US4.5 trillion annually by the early 2030s.
In 2023, the IEA once again makes the point that there is no room for fossil fuels if we want to stave off dangerous climate change, but this time frames it slightly differently.
“No new long-lead time upstream oil and gas projects are needed in the NZE Scenario,” the report says, and “neither are new coal mines, mine extensions or new unabated coal plants.”
What is needed is a whole lot of “widely available, well understood, and often rapidly deployable and cost effective” renewables, in particular solar and wind.
The report says tripling global installed renewables capacity to 11,000 gigawatts by 2030 provides the largest emissions reductions to 2030 in the NZE Scenario.
The call to ramp up renewables development comes at a critical point for Australia, where the latest industry data finds a lull in new large scale renewables projects is continuing into the new financial year, with no new solar projects registered in the first two months of 2023/24.
“For all countries, speeding up permitting, extending and modernising electricity grids, addressing supply chain bottlenecks, and securely integrating variable renewables are critical,” the report says.
“Sequencing the decline of fossil fuel supply investment and the increase in clean energy investment is vital if damaging price spikes or supply gluts are to be avoided,” it adds.
Beyond renewables, the IEA underscores the vital role that “booming technologies” including electric vehicles and heat pumps will play, providing nearly one-fifth of the emissions reductions to 2030 in the NZE Scenario.
“Recent growth puts electric car sales on track to account for two-thirds of new car sales by 2030 – a critical milestone in the NZE Scenario,” the report says.
“Announced production targets from car makers underscore that this high share is achievable. Heat pump sales increased by 11% globally in 2022, and many markets, notably in the European Union, are already tracking ahead of the roughly 20% annual growth rate needed to 2030 in the NZE Scenario.”
The importance of “fit for purpose” electricity grids is also spelled out in the report, with the world’s transmission and distribution networks expected to need to expand by around 2 million kilometres a year to 2030 to meet the needs of the NZE Scenario.
“As electricity becomes the ‘new oil’ of the global energy system in the NZE Scenario, secure electricity supplies become even more important,” the report says.
“Building grids today can take more than a decade, with permitting a particularly time-consuming bottleneck. The same is true for other kinds of energy infrastructure.
“Policy makers, industry and civil society need to work together to nurture a ‘build big’ mentality and to expedite decision making, while preserving public engagement and respecting environmental safeguards.”
The IEA scenario also requires global energy sector methane emissions to plummet by 75 per cent by 2030, and unproven technologies like carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels need to make rapid progress in that time.
“Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 ̊C requires the world to come together quickly,” says IEA executive director Fatih Birol.
“The good news is we know what we need to do – and how to do it. Our 2023 Net Zero Roadmap, based on the latest data and analysis, shows a path forward.
“But we also have a very clear message: Strong international cooperation is crucial to success. Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand.”
This, again, seems like a pointed message to Australia, where the federal opposition is still of the belief that climate action can be taken slowly with a vague target of 2050 in mind – and that the jury is still out on the best way to get there.
It is not.
“The IEA further highlights the ‘fierce urgency of now’ – that there is no slow route to NZE – precisely the sort of message needed to shake people out of their complacency,” says Mike Coffin, head of oil, gas and mining at Carbon Tracker Initiative.
“It’s interesting and important to see the IEA report stress that the shift away from oil and gas ‘reduces traditional risks to energy security’, effectively in contrast to incumbent fossil fuel industry narratives,” Coffin adds.
“Similarly, the report highlights how countries’ drive for increased domestic production is contrary to supporting global Paris goals.”
“How many more reports do we need before our governments actually start listening and stop allowing fossil fuel expansion?” asks Tzeporah Berman, chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
“Once again the science is clear: allowing new oil, gas and coal projects at this moment in history is like throwing gas instead of water on a planet on fire.
“Today’s IEA report reinforced what half a million people were calling for when they marched in the streets last week across the globe, that our leaders need to stand up to the fossil fuel industry and focus on building a cleaner, safer world with electrification and renewable energy.”
