Tesla Model Y Delivery Estimate Goes Down To 4–8 Weeks
Update: I should have added that many reservation holders in North America are still waiting for the opportunity to confirm (place) their orders, which makes the 4–8 week delivery estimate for new orders all the more confusing.
The Tesla website now shows a delivery estimate of 4–8 weeks for the Model Y if you order today. That has surprised people, as it seems like a pretty short delivery window for a model that is presumably in huge demand. Tesla hasn’t been able to produce until recently due to the Fremont factory lockdown. Prior to the change, the delivery estimate was 8–12 weeks.
Historically, when Tesla launched new models, it would take months to shave down the waiting list and get delivery estimates anywhere close to 4 weeks — and the Model Y is expected to be its most popular model ever. So, why are delivery estimates so soon?
There is one thing that’s been going on that may have played a role in the, shortened delivery time. There’s that whole coronavirus thing going around. If people aren’t yet ready to take delivery of their Model Y because of health concerns or because of financial concerns, there may be a lot of vehicles already produced for people who are delaying delivery. Depending on consumer preferences regarding color, trim, etc., that may lead to a mismatch Tesla wasn’t anticipating, or even if they were, it could have triggered the shorter delivery window.
Generally speaking, Tesla delivers many or most of its vehicles at the end of the quarter. Last year, Elon Musk talked about “unwinding the wave” to make deliveries more steadily paced, but in reality, there are apparently still various forces that lead to a quarter-end rush quarter after quarter. In other words, the previous delivery estimate was 8–12 weeks as quarter end was about that far away. With quarter end around 4 weeks away, if people order today and other buyers who ordered earlier pull out at the last minute at the end of June, perhaps people ordering today will get a chance to pick up a Model Y with the trim they wanted right at the end of the month. That’s one creative but potentially valid explanation for the new 4 week possibility. It doesn’t explain why 12 weeks is no longer in the forecast, leaving one to believe demand is just not that mismatched from supply any longer. Or, if it is and some buyers will have to wait 12 weeks for their Model Y, Tesla is just ignoring that portion of buyers in the forecast and giving people more hope of an earlier delivery.
No doubt, there are many buyers waiting to buy the Y with features not yet shipping, like white seats or the 7 seat option. Nonetheless, there’s no denying that the delivery estimate in 4–8 weeks makes it seem as if Model Y demand isn’t as ginormous as expected. Will estimated delivery time explode again once the quarter is passing? We’ll see.
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