South Australia has maintained its extraordinary and world-leading share of wind and solar, which accounted for more than 80 per cent of its local electricity demand over the latest summer that officially ended last week.
According to data from OpenNEM, wind and solar accounted for 80.1 per cent of state demand from December 1 through to February 28. That followed official data that showed wind and solar accounted for 80 per cent of local demand in the December quarter (October 1 through to December 31).
South Australia leads the world in the penetration of wind and solar in a gigawatt scale grid. No other state or country comes close, and this is made all the more remarkable by its relatively thin connection to other grids (just one synchronous link to Victoria), and the high penetration of rooftop solar, at least in daylight hours.
Wind accounts for the bulk of the output in the summer, at 46 per cent, but rooftop solar accounts for 26 per cent (despite its daytime limitations). in the summer of 2007/08, renewables totalled just 2.6 per cent.
The graph displayed above shows the rapid transition of South Australia’s grid. Nuclear advocates often claim that wind and solar cannot displace coal and gas as quickly as nuclear.
But South Australia proves that where there is a will, there is a way, and it can be devastatingly effective. It took less then a decade to kick out coal, gas should be all but gone (with just a minor role in grid back-up) within a few years, and imports have been dramatically reduced.
And it is not the only example of South Australia proving that the impossible is indeed the possible. A recent assessment by the Australian Energy Market Operator reveals the state has the smallest reliability gap, and is the only one to have escaped – at least at times – the tyranny of expensive gas prices.
And, while the share of wind and solar in South Australia’s grid seems remarkable, it is important to note that 82 per cent renewables (including hydro) is now the federal Labor government’s target for the entire National Electricity Market, the main grid for the eastern states and Tasmania.
This is based on the “step change” modelling conducted by AEMO in its Integrated System Plan, and assumes more rapid coal exits, and enough wind, solar and storage to be built, along with the transmission lines to connect it and to deliver it where it is needed.
Some states have even higher targets. South Australia itself is aiming for “net” 100 per cent renewables within five years, while Victoria has an official target of 95 per cent renewables by 2035, by which time it assumes the last of its brown coal generators will have closed.
These targets could be easily beaten, depending on the amount of wind and solar built to deliver green hydrogen if that technology takes off to help reduce emissions in hard to abate sectors.
Over the latest summer, the main grid averaged 38.9 per cent renewables over the summer, meaning it will have to more than double its share of the grid over the next seven years to reach the federal Labor targets and the AEMO step change modelling.
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