DEEP: Deep Energy Exploration & Production (V1)
Polpis Systems focuses on unlocking the potential of deep geothermal energy to achieve power densities that can compete with energy sources such as advanced nuclear, natural gas and coal. This necessitates, at a reasonable development cost and manageable risk profile, a substantial increase in geothermal energy produced per well - from 3-5 MW of current hydrothermal commercial wells to 50-100 MW for next generation geothermal. This leap in capacity can only be achieved through exploiting deep thermal resources where the production fluid is in a supercritical state (T > 374 and P > 22.1 MPa for pure water). Accessing such superhot' resources requires drilling to depths within the Brittle-Ductile Transition (BDT) zone, where rock transitions from a brittle, easily fractured material to a ductile state with extremely low natural permeability. Due to low rock permeability, extremely high fluid temperatures and challenging reservoir mechanics, the wider adoption of deep geothermal energy requires an advance in the modeling and computational predictive capabilities using Deep Energy Exploration and Production (DEEP), in order to develop an adequately de-risked technology roadmap.
For this reason we are developing DEEP v1, an open API techno-economic simulator that extends beyond traditional forward simulation of geothermal performance and plant cost. DEEP will be the first comprehensive model capable of simulating supercritical conditions and producing a framework for identifying the technical capabilities needed to commercially extract energy from this deep thermal resource. The output of this effort provides a pathway for de-risking the capabilities needed to make supercritical geothermal competitive in the near term by quantifying the critical parameters. We envision DEEP as a central hub of future geothermal data and simulations that enables users to evaluate the techno-economics of geothermal energy from multiple types of systems, in order to become a primary source of energy in place of fossil fuel.
DEEP is differentiated from other current geothermal simulation platforms as follows:
1. It is the first comprehensive effort to model the thermodynamics and geophysics of supercritical resources within the Brittle-Ductile Transition (BDT) zone.
This will be implemented via GEOPHIRES-4, an updated version of an open-source geothermal techno-economic simulator (previous versions only support simulating reservoir fluids in the liquid phase). GEOPHIRES-4 will accurately model supercritical fluids up to 500 C.
2. It introduces technology risk minimization given cost & performance goals and provides a set of geothermal plant and reservoir process conditions to meet these targets.
Current versions of GEOPHIRES take reservoir, wellbore and surface plant configurations as inputs in order to output various economic information such as the capital, operation and maintenance costs, as well as instantaneous and lifetime energy production and levelized cost of energy of a desired geothermal plant. This forward design process is feasible given a well-established set of technologies, reservoir configurations and plant design.
As we advance towards deep, supercritical geothermal resources, the technical capabilities needed are not well understood given limited data on the subsurface and most are still under development or have not yet been identified, resulting in high levels of technology uncertainty. DEEP's algorithm will therefore emphasize minimizing technology risk and complexity under dictated cost & performance goals and optimize the location (user provided), reservoir conditions (GEOPHIRES), and power plant specifications (NREL). A reverse modeling' approach results in a technical roadmap that quantifies the engineering innovations and the technical risks that need to be addressed to implement cost-effective deep supercritical geothermal energy.
3. It enables technology, cost and risk verification and validation on an open-source basis.
The roadmap relies on understanding new technologies through open-source modeling where users and the broader geothermal community can verify and validate inputs, assumptions and modeling capabilities. This creates a feedback loop for geothermal discussions and technological advancements where users are not required to trust' the claims of developers but rather use DEEP to show an alternate analysis or suggest areas where the modeling is deficient.
The current status of DEEP v1 is that the GEOPHIRES code base has been updated to account for supercritical conditions. The roadmap will then be constructed by running different system scenarios to determine what variables must be fixed in order to determine the critical technological inputs. For example, fixing the LCOE and the target temperature / pressure for a given exploration location will provide guidance on what the cost of drilling must be for economical production. Once these scenarios are complete, the final stage of development is prioritizing and displaying the technological outputs (aka roadmap) and sensitivity analysis. The commercialization plan is to release DEEP v1 as an open API that anyone can use to interface with GEOPHIRES-4 via a web interface and app UI in order to encourage feedback.
As stated in our original mission, Polpis Systems is an open scientific experiment. We are testing the hypothesis that open collaboration and transparency of methods will lead to greater progress towards advancing geothermal energy. We believe that geothermal technology has reached a critical inflection point where it can either become the primary replacement for fossil energy or cede traction to other high-density power sources like advanced nuclear. As such, we will continue to publish our work and document our progress, both positive and negative, as this is the best way to foster a collaborative community where public progress, rather than proprietary patents, is the end game. We are treating the general public as our shareholders', so if you are interested in collaborating or partnering, please join our Visible hub to track progress and updates. In addition, if you are a geothermal scientist or technologist and have interest in being a co-author by participating in the publication of our deep geothermal roadmap, please reach out to Wenyuan Chen, Chief of Staff, Polpis Systems: wen@polpissystems.com.
Click here to read the original article.
