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We usually don’t think about the wonderful service fossil fuels provide in terms of being a store of heat energy for winter, the time when there is a greater need for heat energy. Figure 1 shows dramatically how, in the US, the residential usage of heating fuels spikes during the winter months.
Solar energy is most abundantly available in the May-June-July period, making it a poor candidate for fixing the problem of the need for winter heat.
In some ways, the lack of availability of fuels for winter is a canary in the coal mine regarding future energy shortages. People have been concerned about oil shortages, but winter fuel shortages are, in many ways, just as bad. They can result in people “freezing in the dark.”
In this post, I will look at some of the issues involved.
[1] Batteries are suitable for fine-tuning the precise time during a 24-hour period solar electricity is used. They cannot be scaled up to store solar energy from summer to winter.
In today’s world, batteries can be used to delay the use of solar electricity for at most a few hours. In exceptional situations, perhaps the holding period can be increased to a few days.
California is known both for its high level of battery storage and its high level of renewables. These renewables include both solar and wind energy, plus smaller amounts of electricity generated in geothermal plants and electricity generated by burning biomass. The problem encountered is that the electricity generated by solar panels tends to start and end too early in the day, relative to when citizens want to use this electricity. After citizens return home after work, they would like to cook their dinners and use their air conditioning, leading to considerable demand after the sun sets.
Figure 3 illustrates how batteries in combination with hydroelectric generation (hydro) are used to save electricity generation from early in the day for use in the evening hours. While battery use is suitable for fine tuning exactly when, during a 24-hour period, solar energy will be used, the quantity of batteries cannot be ramped up sufficiently to save electricity from summer to winter. The world would run out of battery-making materials, if nothing else.
[2] Ramping up hydro is not a solution to our problem of inadequate energy for heat in winter.
One problem is that, in long-industrialized economies, hydro capabilities were built out years ago.
It is difficult to believe that much more buildout is available in these countries.
Another issue is that hydro tends to be quite variable from year to year, even over an area as large as the United States, as shown in Figure 4 above. When the variability is viewed over a smaller area, the year-to-year variability is even higher, as illustrated in Figure 5 below.
The pattern shown reflects peak generation in the spring, when the ice pack is melting. Low generation generally occurs during the winter, when the ice pack is frozen. Thus, hydro tends not be helpful for raising winter energy supplies. A similar pattern tends to happen in other temperate areas.
A third issue is that variability in hydro supply is already causing problems. Norway has recently reported that it may need to limit hydro exports in coming months because water reservoirs are low. Norway’s exports of electricity are used to help balance Europe’s wind and solar electricity. Thus, this issue may lead to yet another energy problem for Europe.
As another example, China reports a severe power crunch in its Sichuan Province, related to low rainfall and high temperatures. Fossil fuel generation is not available to fill the gap.
[3] Wind energy is not a greatly better than hydro and solar, in terms of variability and poor timing of supply.
For example, Europe experienced a power crunch in the third quarter of 2021 related to weak winds. Europe’s largest wind producers (Britain, Germany and France) produced only 14% of their rated capacity during this period, compared with an average of 20% to 26% in previous years. No one had planned for this kind of three-month shortfall.
In 2021, China experienced dry, windless weather, resulting in both its generation from wind and hydro being low. The country found it needed to use rolling blackouts to deal with the situation. This led to traffic lights failing and many families needing to eat candle-lit dinners.
Even viewed on a nationwide basis, US wind generation varies considerably from month to month.
US total wind electricity generation tends to be highest in April or May. This can cause oversupply issues because hydro generation tends to be high about the same time. The demand for electricity tends to be low because of generally mild weather. The result is that even at today’s renewable levels, a wet, windy spring can lead to a situation in which the combination of hydro and wind electricity supply exceeds total local demand for electricity.
[4] As more wind and solar are added to the grid, the challenges and costs become increasingly great.
There are a huge number of technical problems associated with trying to add a large amount of wind and solar energy to the grid. Some of them are outlined in Figure 7.
One of the issues is torque distortion, especially related to wind energy.
There are also many other issues, including some outlined on this Drax website. Wind and solar provide no “inertia” to the system. This makes me wonder whether the grid could even function without a substantial amount of fossil fuel or nuclear generation providing sufficient inertia.
Furthermore, wind and solar tend to make voltage fluctuate, necessitating systems to absorb and discharge something called “reactive power.”
[5] The word “sustainable” has created unrealistic expectations with respect to intermittent wind and solar electricity.
A person in the wind turbine repair industry once told me, “Wind turbines run on a steady supply of replacement parts.” Individual parts may be made to last 20-years, or even longer, but there are so many parts that some are likely to need replacement long before that time. An article in Windpower Engineering says, “Turbine gearboxes are typically given a design life of 20 years, but few make it past the 10-year mark.”
There is also the problem of wind damage, especially in the case of a severe storm.
Furthermore, the operational lives for fossil fuel and nuclear generating plants are typically much longer than those for wind and solar. In the US, some nuclear plants have licenses to operate for 60 years. Efforts are underway to extend some licenses to 80 years.
With the short life spans for wind and solar, constant rebuilding of wind turbines and solar generation is necessary, using fossil fuels. Between the rebuilding issue and the need for fossil fuels to maintain the electric grid, the output of wind turbines and solar panels cannot be expected to last any longer than fossil fuel supply.
[6] Energy modeling has led to unrealistic expectations for wind and solar.
Energy models don’t take into account all of the many adjustments to the transmission system that are needed to support wind and solar, and the resulting added costs. Besides the direct cost of the extra transmission required, there is an ongoing need to inspect parts for signs of wear. Brush around the transmission lines also needs to be cut back. If adequate maintenance is not performed, transmission lines can cause fires. Burying transmission lines is sometimes an option, but doing so is expensive, both in energy use and cost.
Energy models also don’t take into account the way wind turbines and solar panels perform in “real life.” In particular, most researchers miss the point that electricity from solar panels cannot be expected to be very helpful for meeting our need for heat energy in winter. If we want to add more summer air conditioning, solar panels can “sort of” support this effort, especially if batteries are also added to help fine tune when, during the 24-hour day, the solar electricity will be utilized. Unfortunately, we don’t have any realistic way of saving the output of solar panels from summer to winter.
It seems to me that supporting air conditioning is a rather frivolous use for what seems to be a dwindling quantity of available energy supply. In my opinion, our first two priorities should be adequate food supply and preventing freezing in the dark in winter. Solar, especially, does nothing for these issues. Wind can be used to pump water for crops and animals. In fact, an ordinary windmill, built 100 years ago, can also be used to provide this type of service.
Because of the intermittency issue, especially the “summer to winter” intermittency issue, wind and solar are not truly replacements for electricity produced by fossil fuels or nuclear. The problem is that most of the current system needs to remain in place, in addition to the renewable energy system. When researchers make cost comparisons, they should be comparing the cost of the intermittent energy, including necessary batteries and grid enhancements with the cost of the fuel saved by operating these devices.
[7] Competitive pricing plans that enable the growth of wind and solar electricity are part of what is pushing a number of areas in the world toward a “freezing-in-the-dark” problem.
In the early days of electricity production, “utility pricing” was generally used. With this approach, vertical integration of electricity supply was encouraged. A utility would make long term contracts with a number of providers and would set prices for customers based on the expected long-term cost of electricity production and distribution. The utility would make certain that transmission lines were properly repaired and would add new generation as needed.
Energy prices of all kinds spiked in the late 1970s. Not long afterward, in an attempt to prevent high electricity prices from causing inflation, a shift in pricing arrangements started taking place. More competition was encouraged, with the new approach called competitive pricing. Vertically integrated groups were broken up. Wholesale electricity prices started varying by time of day, based on which providers were willing to sell their production at the lowest price, for that particular time period. This approach encouraged providers to neglect maintaining their power lines and stop adding more storage capacity. Any kind of overhead expense was discouraged.
In fact, under this arrangement, wind and solar were also given the privilege of “going first.” If too much energy in total was produced, negative rates could result for other providers. This approach was especially harmful for nuclear energy. Nuclear power plants found that their overall price structure was too low. They sometimes closed because of inadequate profitability. New investments in nuclear energy were discouraged, as was proper maintenance. This effect has been especially noticeable in Europe.
The result is that about a third of the gain from wind and solar energy has been offset by the decline in nuclear electricity generation. Of course, nuclear is another low-carbon form of electricity. It is a great deal more reliable than wind or solar. It can even help prevent freezing in the dark because it is likely to be available in winter, when more electricity for heating is likely to be needed.
Another issue is that competitive pricing discouraged the building of adequate storage facilities for natural gas. Also, it tended to discourage purchasing natural gas under long term contracts. The thinking went, “Rather than building storage, why not wait until the natural gas is needed, and then purchase it at the market rate?”
Unfortunately, producing natural gas requires long-term investments. Companies producing natural gas operate wells that produce approximately equal amounts year-round. The same pattern of high winter-consumption of natural gas tends to occur almost simultaneously in many Northern Hemisphere areas with cold winters. If the system is going to work, customers need to be purchasing natural gas, year-round, and stowing it away for winter.
Natural gas production has been falling in Europe, as has coal production (not shown), necessitating more imports of replacement fuel, often natural gas.
With competitive rating and LNG ships seeming to sell natural gas on an “as needed” basis, there has been a tendency in Europe to overlook the need for long term contracts and additional storage to go with rising natural gas imports. Now, Europe is starting to discover the folly of this approach. Solar is close to worthless for providing electricity in winter; wind cannot be relied upon. It doesn’t ramp up nearly quickly enough, in any reasonable timeframe. The danger is that countries will risk having their citizens freeze in the dark because of inadequate natural gas import availability.
[8] The world is a very long way from producing enough wind and solar to solve its energy problems, especially its need for heat in winter.
The energy supply that the world uses includes much more than electricity. It contains oil and fuels burned directly, such as natural gas. The percentage share of this total energy supply that wind and solar output provides depends on how it is counted. The International Energy Agency treats wind and solar as if they only replace fuel, rather than replacing dispatchable electricity.
On this basis, the share of total energy provided by the Wind and Solar category is very low, only 2.2% for the world as a whole. Germany comes out highest of the groups analyzed, but even it is replacing only 6.0% of its total energy consumed. It is difficult to imagine how the land and water around Germany could tolerate wind turbines and solar panels being ramped up sufficiently to cover such a shortfall. Other parts of the world are even farther from replacing current energy supplies with wind and solar.
Clearly, we cannot expect wind and solar to ever be ramped up to meet our energy needs, even in combination with hydro.
Wow, the UKR attack on the Crimea bridge seems to have changed the Russian terms of engagement in UKR. UKR should have seen that coming?
No doubt NATO were entirely aware of the likely response, and just after Gn. Surovikin was appointed as overall Commander. It has provided the pretext on a platter for escalation.
No one ever seriously thought that NATO really cares about what happens to UKR. It was always about an attempt to ‘get’ Russia, which is not really working out.
> Russia Launches Strikes on Ukraine, Retaliation for Crimea Attack; Russia Close to Capture Bakhmut
Thought experiment on inflation/deflation.
If I am a buyer of oil and I can print money, the seller of oil decreases amount for sale and increases the price by the same aggregate amount. No loss of purchasing power to the seller, but the buyer say gets 10% less oil. This should mean the buyer’s country can use its assets dependent on oil 10% less, thus they have less value which is a greater decrease than 10% as that is marginal revenue for the user of the asset.
So the inflating country is seeing all its oil using assets decline in value by an amount > 10% secondary to declining marginal revenue on those assets. Those assets in turn can pay less of a debt load so the associated debt declines in price and there is no way to transfer that in a real manner not involving paper shuffling. Assuming some of these assets are owned by pensions of any kind, payments cannot be covered, if payments are decreased, money flow decreases, und so weiter.
I think it is deflation in assets which use oil, leading to deflation of cashflow, leading to insolvency of paper assets as the NPV goes to less than zero. The salvage value of the real assets is the value of the scrap price less transportation to the salvage yard. Trucking is now very expensive, bummer.
Further example: RE, say houses underwater. City forecloses for delinquent taxes, squatters move in, destroy house and can’t be removed due to city ordinances regarding squatters. Neighborhood goes to hell(think Portland), home values go down, RE tax revenue goes down, does one need an assessor? Maybe not, cut that job, money velocity goes down, deflation, another bummer. Progressives move into house, skip paying taxes but salary gone, another bummer.
Interesting times.
Dennis L.
You are right. With a falling supply of oil, any of the infrastructure that makes goods that use oil, such as factories that make oil-powered vehicles, falls in value. It becomes impossible for the owners of these factories to pay back debt with interest. The whole system tends to spiral downhill because vehicles can be used less. I would expect that roads can be repaired less, as well, making the whole system deteriorate.
Maybe we move toward a society of squatters living in abandoned homes.
Or, more likely, local developers (sometimes national) pressure the state and clear out the squatters and built a bunch of expensive housings where nobody lives, basically a money laundering scheme to the Chinese.
the Singularity would cure everything.
(don’t click Post Comment, find inner strength, instead click Cancel reply.)
Den L – You are not wrong but I think a more powerful dynamic is the labor element. All energy is consumed to augment human physical labor. No industry can function without labor, even though all of them are doing their damndest to try. Banking, Finance, realestate, insurance, even they are absolutely directly connected to labor. Without people doing work there would be no need for any of it.
This is a concept that has always seemed to escape economists mind. They always assume that demand is a constant and is in fact ever increasing, so all you need to do is eliminate labor, one of the most expensive factors of production, and you can supply that ever increasing demand for less cost thus more profit. Does anyone else see the problem with this?
There is one way and one way only now available to humanity to reduce price and that is to exponentially reduce demand.
Many of us have always said that oil will become less expensive in the future not more, but less people will be able to afford it.
Just trying to wrap my head around the thought experiment.
‘We love Gazprom. Yankees Go Home’: Thousands took to the streets of Rome to protest the skyrocketing cost of living, low wages, and inflation in Italy
https://twitter.com/RT_com/status/1579351022568411140
Maybe Russia isn’t so bad, after all, if Russia could fix Italy’s energy problem.
From what i’ve seen and read so far, it is the US and NATO that are the bad actors in all of this, NOT Russia. Russia was still willing to sell the EU LNG and oil but the US and its puppet States decided to increase the sanctions and seize Russian assets including Russian forcing businessmen to sell to other parties. A Russian Formula 1 racer had his contract cancelled and all his sponsorship money was seized just because he was Russian.
So I would be surprised if Putin helps out unless they drop their sanctions against Russia.
This is what the United States government wants and that is to destroy Russia. That’s what the Neocons and Warhawks want. Next would be China and North Korea to complete their quest for World Domination.
Uk is as guilty as US and even more self defeating
It’s all about the end of oil…. Russia wants to shore up its pathways and wants control of all the energy of the satellite states… the u.s hates Russia and does not want to see them become an economic powerhouse…. Next stop Saudi Arabia…. It is the reason that the Fed is going to crash the economic system… a Great Depression will make the dollar strong and oil prices collapse. It’s better to let average people in amurica suffer than let Russia win…. And who knows maybe it will buy David a few more years!!
well, the 2020s are almost 30% history.
that’s a pretty good start.
“So I would be surprised if Putin helps out unless they drop their sanctions against Russia.”
I wouldn’t. While I agree with you about NATO being the bad actors, I am completely confused of the way Russia handled this crisis.
All throughout, Putin kept calling for peace talks, continued to provide cheap (or free!) gas and oil to Europe and refused to fight the war. Did you know that most of the fighting was done by the Donbass militia, with help from Chechen volunteers?
At this point, I would not be surprised by anything: Putin could be colluding with Ukraine and US, it’s all a psyops or simply everyone involved is insane/stupid.
you are commenting on the very day when the SMO is being escalated.
Putin tried to be the adult and negotiate, and when the West acted in bad faith, he invaded, slowly, trying to minimize the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and minimize civilian deaths.
it REALLY is psyops from the West, and indeed they are borderline innsane/stooooopid.
I would guess it starts to look like gloves off WAR starting today.
to be continued…
Nobel for QE Ben is another encoded message from TPTB.
It says stock market will skyrocket very soon.
Totally give up on fighting inflation.
Wrong! It is an affirmation that you can print all you want as long as you make damn sure it only goes to the 1%.
Fighting inflation is all about destroying demand of the 99% without inconveniencing the wealthy. That was the magic of Bernank.
Problem is that supplies are dwindling faster than they can destroy demand so its about time for some serious demand destruction aka WAR!
Europe willingly cutting itself off from its top energy provider is going to cause “some serious demand destruction” through this winter.
MACRON FAKED VAX: FRENCH POLITICIAN OF 20 YEARS ANNOUNCES VAX WRECKED HEART & GOVT FAKERY
https://www.bitchute.com/video/VO4UptLOTZWH/
French politician claims that Macron and most French government officials as having faked their vaccines.
This information would seem likely to make French citizens more than a little unhappy.
One has to ask how he could possibly know this about Macron ? Surely a closely-guarded secret.
(World Cargo News)
‘Liverpool to make redundancies in container division.
The Port of Liverpool, part of Peel Ports, says it will restructure its container handling division and will next week start a redundancy consultation process, following a marked deterioration in the volume of containers handled by the port.
https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/news/liverpool-to-make-redundancies-in-container-division-69996
And also here:
‘After Strikes at Liverpool, Peel Ports Makes Plans for Layoffs’
https://maritime-executive.com/article/after-strikes-at-liverpool-peel-ports-makes-plans-for-layoffs
It sounds like Liverpool can’t afford to import as large a volume of goods as in the past.
demand destruction!
most likely in discretionary items.
To kiwis:
https://seemorerocks.is/new-zealand-has-finished-voting-in-local-body-elections/
When I found out about nz problems I was surprised that billionaire transplants selected it as their safe space.
Ok maybe they’re making it the new Atlantis.
Nümenor, but without the elves
the name Hades is available.
Russia Launches Large-Scale Strikes On Some 20 Ukrainian Cities In Response To “Terrorist” Crimea Bridge Blast
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/large-scale-strikes-many-cities-across-ukraine-response-terrorist-crimea-bridge-blast
False flag galore.. coming up soon…. (maybe the duct tape over the financial crisis is not working anymore)
Targeting civilian infrastructure denotes an agreement to react not decide. Its not a deterrent. If anything it encourages more attacks on Russia by demonstrating control of Russias actions via reactivity. The people are drawn into the identity of a us and them necessary for war. At the beginning of this there was by and large a understanding that Ukraine and Russia are largely identical in many ways by both Ukrainians and Russians.
Russia and Ukraine are enemys now. Attacking civilian infrastructure assures that the people buy into the war. They will not be brothers working together now or anytime soon. The SMO is a failure.
Many things have depended on abundant energy. The philosophy of considering a civilian population as duped when their military loses a war is dependent on abundant fossil fuels. Infrastructure destroyed in war depends on abundant energy in order to be replaced.
The process of war requires agreement on a principle. Both parties agree to their reactivity. They discard their ability to decide to participate. All responsibility for outcomes is placed on the enemy. Its the ultimate irony! Each entity places there future in the hands of those they despise. War is a very intimate thing but it is a inanimateness that is unnatural. The tenderness that a bear shows her cubs that is natural. Inanimateness based on placing your future in the hands of those you despise is not. None the less much of human institutional inanimateness has been the product of war. The USAs appreciation of Japanese culture and traditions for instance. A appreciation that was generally not shared by veterans of that war. That tiny bit of brightness in the dark of war is over it depended on abundant energy too.
What has changed since the last world war is not only energy depletion. The advances in technology assure that the war will be very different. While those two factors have changed human reactivity has not.
Both sides have already decided on their escalations, there are no considerations now. There are only dominoes falling. Reactivity. All parties have chosen to abandon their control of the outcome. The leaders deny that but they are just dominoes placed to fall. Women and children have been evacuated from the Donbass to deeper in Russia. Where the dominoes fall is known. Russias air defenses are nuclear. Russia never stopped civil defense programs like the west. Their citizens practice sheltering for a nuclear war. Russian industry practices continuance after a nuclear war. Finland is one of the few western countries with a effective civil defense program. Effective civil defense placed in the same sentence with nuclear war is a oxymoron. Interesting word “moron”.
The idea that nuclear weapons could be created and their creation ensured that their inherent purpose would not be fulfilled based on the whim of mutually assured destruction was and is moronic in the extreme. Its stupidity almost justifies our species up and coming extinction if it was not for the suffering of innocents it will entail. Duty is protecting the innocent. Both institutions and individuals own responsibility of their actions. When self accountability is denied that decision is insane. When suffering is created reactivity is created and the ability to determine outcomes is negated. The thing we called war in the past is gone. Whether it was ever sane is debatable. The thing we call war now is insane. Our agreement to participate in war did not change but what war is did. We are at war now. The decision to participate in war is to indulge in its philosophy and practice not the actual act of destruction and creation of suffering. Why and how nuclear proliferation occurred is easily understandable. That it is insane and we all agreed to participate with something we know in our hearts is wrong is not easily understandable but we persist in the behavior. The uneasiness caused by the truth of our intuition and our appreciation of beauty that should be demonstrated by duty to protect the innocent is considered weakness contrary to our primary philosophy that is one of war.
The world is now at war with one another because there are not enough goods and services to go around. Someone has to be left out.
We are in a strange situation now. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is only part of it. We don’t know which actions are real and which actions are false flags, either. We don’t understand that a virus that is released could be an act of war, either.
Everyone comes to OFW for diferent reasons. I come to OFW because I believe our species has become quite deluded by its wielding of fossil fuels. Our species thinks it is god but it denies god by doing so.
The extent to which we control outcomes is always a difficult question. Ultimatly we die and we have no choice in the matter. Those that would serve as god would like to change that.
I believe the question of our ability and morality to change outcomes is a paradox that we do not fully understand. Part of our human limitations is our belief we always understand. We try to put things beyond our comprehension into boxes that have definition so our model of reality functions without cognitive dissonance. Part of this coping process is to polarize.
The point I am getting to is that just because their are things beyond our control it doesnt mean our duty to do our best using the abilities that god created in us is negated. It is good to understand that we live in a finite world we are part of it, we do not live autonomously from it as masters of the universe.
Where i differ from many who are patrons of OFW is just because there are things that are beyond our control it does not negate our responsibility to do our best. That includes having to come to terms with the end of abundant energy which blows our normal ideas about appropriate action out of the water. There is reality and there is reality. We can say war is inevitable. That may be a reality. That grieving mother holding her dead daughter in her arms is also a reality. Suffering is inevitable. We were born into that. Creating and participating in the creation of suffering is not inevitable. I may feel this way or that. I may have encountered this injustice or that. I still am responsible for my actions. Thats actually the easy part. Accountability for emotions and happiness is harder.
I encountered xxx so I am not responsible.
Everyone does xxx so I am not responsible.
The world is xxx so I am not responsible.
God calls the shots so I am not responsible.
People are xxxx so I am not responsible.
Were running out of energy so I am not responsible.
Im economic class XXX so I am not responsible
Thats the paradox. Truth is not binary. There can be truth and not truth present in statements. We are reactive creatures. Even as we react we have responsibility. We can choose from a universe of arguments that we are not responsible and there will be a gang of people we can identify with.
Its our species. Its our planet. Its our decision to do our best. We are responsible to do our best. Like it or not we have duty. In that duty lies purpose.
You see all arguments that say it doesnt matter have a fatal flaw. To that mother holding her dead daughter in her arms it matters. To deny that is to agree to be deceived.
I guess thats where I differ from many of the patrons here. I see the truth of energy depletion as accenting out duty not negating it. Will I save the world? Of course f****** not. Thank god I dont weild that kind of power. I have duty and responsibility for my actions in regard to what i do wield. I consider that self evident in my old age. When I was younger I was a selfish ass and to some extent I still am. But we can try. We can try to do our best. It matters.
Thanks for a very fine comment. I agree with you.
Perhaps it would have been better if USA/ UK had not pushed Russia into war in UKR in the first place?
It is all very well posturing as moralistic when Russia responds?
I am not seeing any retreat from militancy in UK. The Daily Mail has been gloating about ‘revenge attacks’ on Russia civilians in areas that UKR has pushed into. That is plain murder. And they are always cheering on the UKR war effort. They were jumping all around the room over the terrorist attack on the bridge to Crimea.
Russia responds, and suddenly they want to talk about “choice”, “God” and “duty”?
One passage comes to mind: “take the beam out of your own eye first!”
Rousing comment, brother banned! Very fine indeed! Couldn’t agree more.
The last sentence of the most important (to me) book I’ve ever read (Cannibals and Kings) reads, “Try Harder.”
It’s our duty to do justice to our 4B year old species, come what may. It’s our duty to not bail out on ourselves. Bailing out altogether is even worse than the civilized behavior that got us into this situation in the first place.
We each must do what we can. I strongly concur that individual actions “ matter” in some greater analysis.
Over the next decade evidence will increasingly mount that this world is radically different from what almost any current modern human imagines.
We will “ discover” that our species ( Homo sapiens sapiens) goes back into deep antiquity as a city building, complex societal species (500,000 bp if not millions bp)
We will discover our earth is far more dynamic than we conceive of (recurrent pole shifts and possible physical expansions) and coupled to our star and the galaxy in very intimate ways (cyclical nova events)
As these revelations occur the magnitude of our foolishness may become apparent to many.
We have done this many times before ( civilization building) and earth recurrently shrugs and our constructions dissolve into the great mother We return to the caves.
The simacrulum is showing no signs of ceasing it’s manifestations. Let us hope the ancient texts reflect a much older mythological and oral tradition that holds a grain of truth.
The captives get set free
If not then we are doomed to repeat the experiment until the mantle destroys the crustal world, our magnetic shield fails and this sphere becomes a true sister to Mars.
Maybe that’s baked into the algorithm?
Putin has said that this war is about the existential threat by the West about the very literal survival of Russia as a country.
the slow SMO was intended to preserve as much Ukrainian infrastructure as possible.
the Russian desire to negotiate before February was intended to preserve innocent lives.
the psyychopth woketard leaders in the West don’t care about Ukrainian lives or infrastructure.
the goal is destroying Russia, no matter what the Ukrainian casualties may be.
what kind of Philosophy of War would you call that?
the evil West needs to be denatzified.
David, you are not a conspiracy theorist so maybe you can help.
“the psyychopth woketard leaders in the West don’t care about Ukrainian lives or infrastructure.”
I knew this for decades (see Vietnam, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yugoslavia – I could go on).
So are you saying that Putin did not know this? Because if he did, the obvious way to minimize losses and finish the war quickly would have been to sever the head in Kiev, destroy the channels of money/war materiel to Ukraine (like the railway close to Poland) and so on.
Every step of the way Putin did the exact opposite of this. Paul Craig Roberts (https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/) has a long list of post describing all the russian mistakes along the way.
So what’s your explanation?
I would say that Putin is humane.
that might give his actions the appearance of “mistakes”.
but as we all see, the “humane war” approach didn’t work. (irony sure.)
it could have been gloves off from the start, but he decided to try an alt route.
the alt route appears to be over.
‘Creating and participating in the creation of suffering is not inevitable’ and yet and yet; it appears so.
This statement is actually correct. If we create suffering we also experience that which is created. We bring about the same causes and conditions, which then manifest In reality. If we experience suffering and resist creating further suffering, we escape the wheel of karma, but not the experience of suffering. Suffering is created in how the mind experiences reality, sounds crazy, yes, but suffering, well; It’s universal and individual and inevitable. The greatest teacher, without it enlightened would be impossible, even if enlightenment is very brief. (the turning of internal light outward)
In the West our desire for resources (in this case Russia’s) directly creates our suffering. Russia’s holding onto it’s resources directly creates its suffering and using up all resources directly creates everyone’s suffering.
Truth is not binary, but relationships are and so is suffering. ironically that’s the truth. The results are guaranteed, even if momentarily delayed. Befits last as long as the delay before counter strike. BAU right?
Threaten a supper power’s existential continuance and you receive a strike out of left field. Don’t expect responses to be measured, predictable or rational. At this point, responses break expected contingency. The next strike could be on the USA and UK, straight to the perceived source and then that’s it for all of Us. Think about it, what else was expected? This will be the result when aggression and fear based emotion is un checked.
If such a being exists, maybe this is God’s reset button. Makes sense right?
All conceit turns to white crystalline light in a flash then realisation it’s self will be vaporised. Turn aside form insanity. Now! Difficult difficult difficult, not impossible!
Florida’s Surgeon General is against vaccines for young adults. Sont you think it is too late to post now? Kinda CYA or perhaps “see i knew and told you all about it”. Controlled opposition? This “vaccine is nasty” narrative has been around and proven within 2 weeks of the launching of the vaccines.
I smell a fish here….
CTG, I am trying really hard to believe that this is all mass formation, hysteria or something like that.
Looking back at history we do see that nations and leaders sometimes behave insanely for a long time.
For example Stalin was persuaded by his friends the nazis to destroy all Red Army leadership. Or some German regions killed half of their women (!) as witches in the 1500s. Hard to explain this rationally but it happened.
So I will keep my mind open to that possibility – but I have to say it’s hard to believe that almost every country in the world (rich, poor, western, Russia and China and even some of Africa) went insane in the same way at the same time…
Rivian is recalling all their vehicles because they are all total junk.
They should get into the vaccine business because they are all total junk.
Amerika: Junk Dealer
$80k+ these are still rich people’s playthings https://www.caranddriver.com/rivian/r1t
Reante (or anyone else who’d like to chime in), re. your “oxygen concentration declines in winter” claim that David to exception to; it is an intriguing prospect, but at the same time I can understand why David might be skeptical.
But if it is indeed the case, then when the oxygen concentration declines, what is it replaced by? What other gases go up when the oxygen goes down? Something must go up to account for the 2 or 3 or 4 percent of the air that is no longer there when the oxygen disappears. That’s just common sense.
I did not reply to that, but oxygen concentration change is equal to minus the carbon dioxide change. So, about (IIRC) 3-4parts per million seasonally. Oxygen concentration varies from 21.0000% in winter (or whatever is the true value) to 21.0003-4%. Not an effect that bothers me.
that does sound very reasonable.
Tim, drb, see my response to DB which is still sitting in the waiting room. We need to distinguish between average atmospheric levels and microclimatic fluctuations. Especially in urban areas.
essentially, air pollution would be the real problem.
if a person is in a bad place and breathing 1% toxic gas…
then when inhaling it’s no longer 78% N and 21% O, but it would be down to 77.2% N and 20.8% O.
the lower 20.8% inhaled oxygen would not be the problem.
essentially, air pollution would be the real problem.
Ben S. Bernanke, former “Printer in Chief” at the Federal Reserve, was just awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics.
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2022/press-release/
And the reason for Bernanke’s (and other moreon economists) winning the award?
Here is a quote from the site:
“Their discoveries improved how society deals with financial crises”
Yes, thats right. Society will soon learn the hard way that the mastermind of QE has dealt a massive blow to the noggin called: World Hyperinflation.
Simply too funny for words.
A doomed species, exhibiting preposterous behaviour in its last days.
Nothing like walking corpses cheering and slapping one another on the back, as the lights go off one by one…..
If there is anyone of you who still harbors delusions about the Nobel Prize, this should really close the deal. It is the same for the Peace, Medicine, Literature prizes, and these types of awards have made inroads in biology, physics, and chemistry.
Worse still, some of the nobel prizes have been awarded in the wrong category. For example, the “discovery” that polio viruses can grow in cultures of various types of tissue should have earned John Franklin Enders and his accomplices not the Nobel Prize in Physiology, but the Nobel Prize in Fantastic Literature. That or five years in jail for scientific fraud.
JMS, with your literary talents there is now a splendid opening for you: Prof of Public Health……
Dictator of all you survey – tempting?
Well, in a way literature is the art of lying with style, Xabier, but i’m afraid I lack the moral skills needed for such a high office, since my aversion to command is only exceeded by my aversion to obey.
Consistency is the key. The award to Bernanke for economics, Obama for peace award, and soon it will be Fauci for medicine. We are being strung along. Durham probe will end in a whimper with his retirement.
As my mantra on my sign at the stop the steal rally sign in Columbia SC read:
We need honesty:
1.) Honest money (End the FED, fractional reserve banking, bring back Glass-Steagall)
2.)Honest Media
3.) Honest elections ( although we need to repeal the 19th amendment and go back to the days of our founding fathers. Sorry ladies, but if you don’t have to get drafted and get killed in wars, then it is manifestly unfair or wholly inequitable that you have all the rights and privileges of men, (the glass ceiling claim notwithstanding). It used to be that child birth was probably the biggest risk to a woman’s premature death, but not any more due to modern medicine.
4.) Honest rule of law.
We have none of these, so we have nothing to work with as we are confronted with unsolvable problems of declining affordable natural resources and energy, debt, and over population. If anyone tries to discuss the latter, the only response is “OK. You first.”
My daughter asked me to watch the hunger games with her a few years ago. The only thing I recall was the opening mad dash for supplies as the “Games” began. A modern day coliseum. There was a center stage where weapons and food were displayed and all the groups were allowed to make a mad dash for those at the signal by those elites who had organized the “Games.” Some people elected not to rush the center but immediately ran away from the supplies. Others made an attempt to grab weapons and in the melee a lot of them killed each on the spot. A grim insight by the writer of this story, just as the Walking Dead is not about zombies- it could have been aliens from outer space as a vehicle for the underlying theme about how people survived what devolved into gang warfare.
Bernanke’s actions did prevent collapse, however. I would never have thought that QE could work as well as it did, as a band-aid over the problems we were facing. Interest rates could be artificially depressed so that more total debt could maintain the debt bubble a little longer.
I suspect the actions did not work for everyone, they worked well for the West and the prize is a Westeran prize. It is a less than zero sum game, claim your seat wisely.
Dennis L.
“Every Breath Bernanke Takes.” Great lyrics, from way back in 2006.
(Jerusalem Post)
“15,000 Ukrainians decide to have a mass orgy if Russia deploys nuclear weapons
More than 15,000 have confirmed participation in a sex party on a hill if Putin decides to press the red button, with participants even indicating whether they prefer anal or oral sex.”
https://www.jpost.com/omg/article-719300
(I’m sorry, I just would like to report a real, weird and symptomatic news of this crazy period)
The Jerusalem Post has to be kidding! A strange world we seem to live in.
No wonder dealing with comments has become so difficult. Worse than “oil production is up or down by such and such amount.”
Are we different from the Romans during their last days of the empire before the barbarians crashed through the gates?
Probably true. Pathetic Nihilists.
Myself, I’d just go for a last walk with the dog…..
My impression is that the news is real and the Telegram group too.
Maybe inside the group there are people who are kidding and other I’m afraid not.
The real worrying issue for me is that those people don’t find the time to protest in the street asking for ceasing hostilities and on the contrary they find the time to joke on death in such a terrible way.
These things tend to have much more participation from males. So if they are saying “there are mushroom clouds on the horizon but I am going to get laid now” they may be doubly disappointed.
Not for the Climate Alarmism Groupies’.
Fossil fuels are green because plants love CO2; they pump it into greenhouses!
“The increased amplitude of the seasonal cycle in atmospheric CO2 and satellite-borne instrumentation to measure solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence from plants provide direct evidence that global photosynthetic activity (or Gross Primary Production, GPP, a measure of the change in global biomass) increased over the past several decades,” Goklany writes. “Observed variations of atmospheric CO2 over the past two centuries are consistent with increased primary productivity. Other satellite studies also show that the earth has been greening continually in recent decades.”
https://papundits.wordpress.com/2022/09/21/study-if-you-want-to-go-green-stick-with-fossil-fuels/
Then; Good view of natural climate change (in some cases 3 deg C Temp change in a decade, independant of CO2 levels).
https://climatism.wordpress.com/2022/10/09/climate-bombshell-greenland-ice-sheet-recovers-as-scientists-say-earlier-loss-was-due-to-natural-warming-not-co2-emissions/
Will not be covered in Lamestream news.
The second article shows this image of average northern temperatures (according to one measure) over the last 11,000 years. Based on this measure, current higher temperatures are not unusual.
https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/image-6.png
but 8bn people requiring sustenance, and demanding an unsustainable lifestyle IS unusual
cities built on coastlines, with 10/20m people ARE unusual
Norm, why put that it their mix? It may upset the not unusual frame of reference.
true
Dark -Field MicroscopicAnalysis on the Blood of 1,006 Symptomatic PersonsAfter Anti-COVIDmRNA Injections from Pfizer/BioNtech or Moderna
https://ijvtpr.com/index.php/IJVTPR/article/view/47/95
The use of dark-field microscopic analysis of fresh peripheral blood on a slide was once widespread in medicine, allowing a first and immediate assessment of the state of health of the corpuscular components of the blood. In the present study we analyzed with a dark-field optical microscope the peripheral blood drop from 1,006 symptomatic subjects after inoculation with an mRNA injection (Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna), starting from March 2021. There were 948 subjects (94%of the total sample) whose bloodshowed aggregation of erythrocytes and the presence of particles of various shapes and sizes of unclear origin one month after the mRNA inoculation.In 12 subjects,blood was examined with the same method before vaccination, showing a perfectly normal hematological distribution. The alterations found after the inoculation of the mRNA injections further reinforce the suspicion that the modifications were due to the so-called “vaccines”themselves. We report 4 clinical cases, chosen as representative of the entire case series. Further studies are needed to define the exact nature of the particles found in the blood and to identify possible solutions to the problems they are evidently causing
100% FAKE – they smashed some cars and lit them on fire … there are no bomb craters wreckage nothing – where are the dead people????
This is totally f789ing ridiculous – but not as ridiculous as the fake moon landings hahaha and most people believe that too – IDI OTS
https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/50455
Russia is likely going after infrastructure, energy generation, reserves and supply lines to cripple the Ukrainian war effort. That narrative would make more sense. The images of damage in Kiev at this stage are questionable. Maybe self inflicted to create popular support when in-fact the real targets are strategic. That’s just speculation at this stage, but possible.
The events unfortunately are an escalation towards larger conflict. It seems the hell realms are widening into a larger theatre.
If the war is genuine, there is simply no logical strategic reason for Russia to hit purely civilian targets of this kind, but every reason for others to do so and blame it on Russian criminality and Putin’s ‘madness’.
Retaliatory infrastructure strikes would make much more sense.
Downtown Kiev photos don’t seem to show much actual damage.
NFL pivots from BLM to Intercept Cancer… cuz VAIDS?
Malaysia’s Petronas declares force majeure on gas supply to MLNG Dua
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/malaysias-petronas-declares-force-majeure-gas-supply-mlng-dua-2022-10-10/
Konspiracist – is this done by the cabal? OR
Simulation – to push homo simulationis to the max and see how they react?
This is ridiculous right?
Seems a bit odd.
Meanwhile – this is Absolutely staged — hahaha what a f789ing JOKE!
Russia bombs Ukrainian cities at rush hour in apparent revenge strikes
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-ria-state-agency-reports-fuel-tank-fire-kerch-bridge-crimea-2022-10-08/
The article says,
We know that LNG shipping is now maxed out because of ship availability. Taking some LNG offline is not a bad idea. Of course, this kind of thing may have happened naturally.
The US has some LNG that is supposedly offline until November because of an explosion damaging one export terminal (IIRC). But with the world supply of LNG ships already filled and traveling somewhere, it doesn’t matter.
https://youtu.be/m9SIdAVIgeg
This video fills in a few pieces that I hadn’t thought about, at least altogether. Wolf clearly doesn’t understand the energy problem we are facing, but he does have a good recollection of what central banks have been doing, and some of their thinking behind their actions. This isn’t quite a transcript, but it tries to give the gist of what Wolf was saying.
– – – –
The title of this 11:30 YouTube video by Wolf Richter is Something Big Has Already Broken: Price Stability
The thing that has already broken is price stability. Instead, we have raging inflation, which the Fed is trying to fix with higher interest rates and QT.
The Wall Street crybabies, including hedge funds and asset managers, don’t care much about raging inflation. What they do care about is falling asset prices. Such prices have been falling recently, and they want this to stop. In fact, asset prices have gone down already, in a way that reverses the effects of many years of money printing and interest rate suppression.
The years of QE and suppressed interest rates since 2008 have created an everything bubble, and now the everything bubble is deflating. The Wall Street crybabies are saying that things are already breaking; that market is distressed. In x months, perhaps November, something big will break. It will cause the Fed to pivot and start cutting rates and begin another money-printing binge.
These folks want the Fed to cut rates and restart QE to re-inflate the everything bubble to help the prices of their big investments, which have now soured. They don’t give a hoot about inflation because they are rich. They can afford what they need, regardless of how high prices rise. If some small part of the market breaks, such as in the repo market, they hope that no-one will notice. Instead, the Fed will make its pivot and fix their asset price problem. In fact, they want something to break, so that the Fed will do its U-turn.
The simple truth is that the prices of all assets, from stock markets to homes to other asset classes, have been inflated by years of low interest rates and very easy money that started in late 2008. After a brief pause in 2017 to 2019, the Fed went hog-wild, starting in March 2020, when it printed $5 trillion in two years and threw it at the markets.
Since 2008, the Fed has printed $8 trillion, and thrown it at the market. Also, for most of the time, it kept interest rates at close to 0%. Investors and speculators using the repo market as a source of funds could borrow at close to 0%; now the repo market is over 3%. Maybe it will be over 4% by yearend. Maybe by next year, the rate will be even higher. That is a big pill to swallow, especially after 14 years of free money.
In fact, this pattern got started in Japan 22 years ago. By 2008, there still wasn’t a lot of consumer price inflation in Japan, so the Federal Reserve in the US saw that QE might be a good path to follow. At first, this path just caused asset price inflation and not consumer price inflation. This didn’t seem too bad, so the Fed enlarged QE and extended it. When the European central banks saw that this approach produced only asset price inflation, they followed the same approach.
The reason that these actions didn’t cause a lot of consumer price inflation is because consumers didn’t actually get this money. The money mostly went to big investors, and asset prices could increasingly rise. Savers and yield investors saw their yields and cash flows crushed. This lower cash flow adverse flow actually helped reduce consumer spending among those depending on this form of income.
So, when the pandemic hit the markets in 2020, central banks went hog-wild, printing huge amounts of money around the globe and repressing interest rates to 0% or even lower. Central banks didn’t think these actions would cause inflation because they hadn’t caused inflation in the past. Furthermore, governments could issue huge amounts of new debt because central banks were buying huge amounts of new debt in their QE programs. Governments threw this money at everything that they could see: consumers, businesses, states. This money got spent on every aspect of the economy.
The gains in the stock market and the housing market and the crypto market were so huge that some people started to use this money to buy $100,000 pickup trucks, consumer electronics, patio furniture and all kinds of things. And, central banks still thought that these fiscal trillions (in the US, close to $10 trillion) wouldn’t cause price inflation.
But central banks were wrong. Consumer price inflation started to take off in early 2021. The dam had broken; forty years of price stability disappeared and was replaced by inflation, even in Japan. Prices exploded, even more massively in Europe than elsewhere.
Central banks initially brushed off the problem. Inflation hadn’t happened before; it couldn’t become a big problem now. They kept printing vast amounts of money and repressing interest rates to zero or below, even as inflation was beginning to rise, in an act of in-comprehensive recklessness. It wasn’t until early this year that something dawned on them. The biggest thing that they are in charge of –price stability–had suddenly broken into a million little pieces.
There is so much excess liquidity out there that it will be very hard to crack down on inflation and re-establish price stability.
Inflation seems to have a life of its own; it dishes up a lot of surprises. The Fed hasn’t figured this out. It has figured out that it is impossible to have a healthy economy without price stability, however. Their version of price stability isn’t my version. Their version uses a lowball calculation of inflation; mine sets a target of 0% inflation using a generous calculation of inflation. But, perhaps it is close enough given where we are with raging inflation.
Price stability probably cracked in late 2020. By early 2021, the problem was very clear, but the Fed was still printing money and surpassing interest rates. A repo blowup or a hedge fund implosion is a minor event compared to the raging inflation. The Wall Street crybabies have missed the fact that something huge has already broken, namely price stability.
Great podcast from Nate Hagens talking to Simon Michaux about minerals blindness. https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/19-simon-michaux
The front says, “How can we learn to adapt in order to overcome the coming challenges?”
Learning to adapt to shortages of fossil fuels and minerals of all kinds is a little like learning to adapt to a shortage of calories to eat. It can’t be done, unless the problem is very minor. But this is the question that groups always want an answer to. Nate comes from the “We can adapt” school of thought.
Here’s what we know so far.
In the last 48 hours a sneaky amendment to PayPal’s acceptable use policy widely captured the public’s attention. Free speech advocates had spotted that customers agreeing to the update would be allowing a sum of $2,500 to be lifted from their accounts if PayPal ever found them guilty of “sending, posting, or publication of any messages, content, or materials” that “promote misinformation” or “present a risk to user safety or wellbeing”.
When word got out, those already concerned about the company’s draconian turn started shutting their accounts and urging others to do the same on social media.
For some, the action proved the final straw.
On Saturday evening U.K. time, PayPal’s former president David Marcus distanced himself very clearly from the action. Elon Musk, whose pathway to billionairehood started in 2000 when his company X.com was merged with Peter Thiel’s Confinity to create the PayPal of today, later tweeted that he agreed.
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/10/09/is-paypal-about-to-go-bankrupt/
Whoever heard of such a crazy idea? How could PayPal come out ahead with this arrangement, if a substantial share of the world’s population consider “misinformation” to be the correct information? They would cancel their accounts, the minute they heard about this scheme.
Remember 2019 — we were looking at auto sales crashing … industrial numbers out of Germany in freefall… and wondering how long they could hold things together before BOOM.
It feels like that but on steroids now.
Europe is either moldy bread or burnt toast.
it should be much clearer in about 5 months.
I was warning people about collapse in 2019. COVID shut-ins, plus a huge amount of QE and money printing kept the system going for a while longer. Losing the impact of QE and money printing becomes a huge problems. Also, there is a huge quantity of pension payments that depend upon a rapidly growing quantity of goods and services actually being available. Otherwise, even printing money doesn’t work.
We knew very early on that booster protection fades within 10 weeks against Omicron based on UK data, yet still pushing for boosters because you are now trapped on the booster treadmill, addicted
So why did we push more boosters? Why now the 5th bivalent shot and with evidence it too is doomed, a failure, and how could we move to vaccinate 200 million Americans based on 8 MICE????
https://palexander.substack.com/p/we-knew-very-early-on-that-booster
What is needed is more frequent boosters with more mRNA!
This is a direct link to the article pointed to:
https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/booster-protection-fades-within-10-weeks-against-omicron-uk-study-1064231.html
Encouraging the deviants https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/50351
True https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/50354
COVID mRNA gene injections have failed, do not protect the upper airways, are ineffective and harmful and the updated bivalent booster (Wuhan/BA.5 spike) will be as devastating, will not work
There is pure viral mutational immune escape now with omicron as the omicron virus BA.5 clade is resistant to the induced vaccinal antibodies; the vaccine has to be stopped entirely.
https://palexander.substack.com/p/covid-mrna-gene-injections-have-failed
From another perspective – they are about to be successful… so what if GVB is a few months early
hahahaahaha All’s well that ends badly
These f789tards deserve it for being gullible thinking their government was looking out for their best interests, haha.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/pfizergate-official-government-reports-prove-hundreds-thousands-people-dying-every-single-week-due-covid-19-vaccination/5790262
Ok so maybe the injections are not completely safe… but you have to consider that hundreds of millions of lives are being saved because the injections are stopping people from dying of covid..
Come on man — you need to tap into the updated PR — http://www.cnn.com
Nah, i’m waiting to have my Koombaya moment with Norm where we can sit side by side in a chair watching CNN together, just like Tom Cruise did with his autistic big bro in the movie Rain Man. 😎
Who knows, we might both get misty eyed and fire up old episodes of The People Court.
According to the article,
Drag Queen Mentally Ill Trannies Brunch for Babies https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40451
This is a great vax injury https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/40471
hahaha https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/50315
Ah, western values FTW !
All Eyes Are on Credit Suisse; But Media Blacked Out Data from the New York Fed Suggest Contagion from Nomura Is Another Threat
Nomura Holdings is tiny compared to the mega banks on Wall Street. According to its website, it had just $384 billion in assets as of March 31, 2021. On the same date, JPMorgan Chase had $3.2 trillion in assets. But for reasons that neither the Federal Reserve nor Congress have yet to explain, a unit of Nomura was allowed to borrow trillions of dollars in emergency repo loans from the Fed beginning on September 17, 2019 – months before there was any COVID crisis anywhere in the world.
The chart above shows that in the last three months of 2019, Nomura borrowed $3.7 trillion cumulatively under the Fed’s emergency repo loan program, topping the amount borrowed by JPMorgan Chase by $1.11 trillion. The loan amounts come directly from the emergency repo loan data being released quarterly by the New York Fed, adjusted for the term of the loan. (Reverse repo amounts have to be deleted from the data released by the Fed.)
The Fed swung into emergency mode on September 17, 2019 when the rate on overnight repo loans suddenly spiked from around 2.25 percent to as high as 10 percent at one point, strongly suggesting the street was backing away from questionable borrowers. The Fed set up its own facility to make tens of billions of dollars in loans available to trading houses on Wall Street on a daily basis, and at very cheap interest rates that did not reflect the credit risk of the individual trading houses. (Repos, short for Repurchase Agreements, are a short-term form of borrowing where corporations, banks, brokerage firms and hedge funds secure loans, typically for one day, by providing safe forms of collateral such as Treasury notes.)
The distress being experienced by Nomura likely came from its large derivatives exposure. The fact that JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs were, from the get-go, also borrowing heavily from the Fed, suggest that the three firms were counterparties to each other’s derivatives. (See 14-day chart below beginning when the Fed first launched its emergency repo loan bailouts.)
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/10/all-eyes-are-on-credit-suisse-but-media-blacked-out-data-from-the-new-york-fed-suggest-contagion-from-nomura-is-another-threat/
Nomura Holdings is Japanese organization. According to Wikipedia,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nomura_Holdings
Nomura Holdings is a Japanese financial holding company that operates out of Tokyo. The linked article talks about the derivatives business that it has been involved in.
excellent!
Nomura and others must have been in a big squeeeeeeeze in September 2019.
TPTB made some chess moves and voila! the crisis was checkmated.
NOW, late 2022, it may be Credit Suisse in the squeeeeeeeze.
so…
TPTB should be confident from their past experience, such as in 2019, that they can fix the Swiss problem also.
looks like TPTB have learned a lot since 2008.
In one hole and out the other….
Swiss Cheese anyone?
this is an interesting quote:
“The New York Fed, literally owned by major Wall Street banks, is allowed to electronically create the trillions of dollars it loans to them at the push of a button.”
who knew?
The trillions of dollars mentioned are misleading. They reach trillions of dollars through cummulitive adding of each days repo amounts during this program. Peak outstanding loan is more interesting:
“The Fed’s audited financial statements show that on its peak day in 2019, the Fed’s repo loans outstanding stood at $259.95 billion.”
A firm in need of over night cash will need this for some while.
Maybe we can actually reach the 2030ies, where trillions of dollars of repos will be pumping each day, would that be the limit?
a unit of Nomura was allowed to borrow trillions of dollars in emergency repo loans from the Fed beginning on September 17, 2019 – months before there was any COVID crisis anywhere in the world.
The global economy was about to implode … and suddenly… Covid … and tens upon tens of trillions was pumped out to keep the Titanic afloat — under the guise of saving us from Covid…
Covid is kinda like the Uke War.. actually it’s exactly like the Uke War only different.
Get it? We call it an excuse
I see this article on Zerohedge today:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-extraordinary-boe-unveils-new-support-broken-bond-market
“It’s Extraordinary” – BoE Unveils New Support For Broken Bond Market
Thus, the pension bailout scheme adopted before is being expanded. What could possibly go wrong?
BoE will:
1. print money
2. print money
3. print money
I don’t believe this.
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1680030/covid-elderly-refusing-booster-vaccine
Covid booster crisis as elderly are refusing the jab
Millions of eligible Britons haven’t had their booster, according to official estimates.
f789 ya! VAIDS!!!
And the MOREONS will way oh it’s cuz of the social distancing..
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F118b457a-d804-4924-8961-ac65591098a0_962x1068.jpeg
What other species would be so stupid as to do this hahaha
In World War II, the U.S. became the first and thus far only country to ever use nuclear weapons. Since World War II, the U.S., Russia, France, the U.K., China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea have conducted an additional 2,056 nuclear weapons tests that distributed radiation around the world.
https://2ndsmartestguyintheworld.substack.com/p/the-great-regression
“I know this all seems pie-in-the-sky. But here’s the thing. The entire global economy is about to stall out permanently because of vaccine and other toxic injuries. The Biden administration’s plan going forward is pandemics-without-end and nuclear war — because 1.) they are completely nuts; 2.) their benefactors believe that they are best positioned to gain from global catastrophes; and 3.) they find chaos exciting.”
he understands that change is unlikely, but doesn’t understand the energy basis of the global economy.
human lifespans increased, now they will decrease.
global population increased, now it will decrease.
it’s all good.
“they find chaos exciting.”
Interesting thought.
Dennis L.
if gov institutions have been rotting from the inside for decades and are now almost fully corrrupted…
then the persons who are now able to rise to the top of these corrrupt institutions,,,
do you suppose these people would think and behave like we common folk do?
Is 2030 officially off the table?
Hey Normies, can you see it yet?
Almost three years in, you dumb f…
https://metatron.substack.com/p/hey-normies-can-you-see-it-yet
hahahaha — I spit upon the CovDIOTS MOREONS!
Another one for Tim. This disgusting Earth disaster documentary he linked to, by Ben Davidson, is quite compelling. But I can’t get my head round this concept of a galactic sheet. The word “sheet” suggests a thin two-dimensional object. A piece of paper springs to mind – but floating round the galaxy? I can’t find a good explanatory reference for this concept. Any thoughts, Tim?
technically a piece of paper is 3 dimensional.
a brief burst of energy, source unknown but powerful enough to destroy planetary life, could be pictured as a sheet or a wave, it doesn’t need much “depth” if it has sufficient force to destroy us, enough is enough.
will it arrive by 2030? that’s the all important question!
but I might be misunderstanding.
Comrade Tim may know better.
“technically a piece of paper is 3 dimensional.”
Yes, well, it does have a minimal thickness, and so if sharp enough to cut you at times.
Hey norm – why are you only just getting Death Shot 4 – when the UK is offering Death Shot 6?
Surely that’s an easy one to answer?