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It has recently become clear to me that heavy oil, which is needed to produce diesel and jet fuel, plays a far more significant role in the world economy than most people understand. We need heavy oil that can be extracted, processed, and transported inexpensively to be able to provide the category of fuels sometimes referred to as Middle Distillates if our modern economy is to continue. A transition to electricity doesn’t work for most heavy equipment that is powered by diesel or jet fuel.
A major concern is that the physics of our self-organizing economy plays an important role in determining what actually happens. Leaders may think that they are in charge, but their power to change the way the overall system works, in the chosen direction, is quite limited. The physics of the system tends to keep oil prices lower than heavy oil producers would prefer. It tends to cause debt bubbles to collapse. It tends to squeeze out “inefficient” uses of oil from the system in ways we wouldn’t expect. In the future, the physics of the system may keep parts of the world economy operating while other inefficient pieces get squeezed out.
In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues with oil limits as they seem to be playing out, particularly as they apply to diesel and jet fuel, the major components of Middle Distillates.
[1] The most serious issue with oil supply is that there seems to be plenty of oil in the ground, but the world economy cannot hold prices up sufficiently high, for long enough, to get this oil out.
As I frequently point out, the world economy is a physics-based system. World oil prices are set by supply and demand. Demand is quite closely tied to what people around the world can afford to pay for food and for transportation services because the use of oil is integral to today’s food production and transportation services.
Heavy oil is especially involved in this affordability issue. As oil becomes “heavier,” it becomes more viscous, and thus more difficult to ship by pipeline. If oil is very heavy, as is the oil from the Oil Sands of Canada, it needs to be mixed with an appropriate diluent to be shipped by pipeline.
Heavy oil often has sulfur and other pollutants mixed in, adding costs to the refining process. Furthermore, heavy oil, especially very heavy oil, often needs to be “cracked” in a refinery to provide a desirable mix of end products, including diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline. This, too, adds costs. Otherwise, there would be too much of the product mix that would be like asphalt. Also, as noted previously, even if the costs of production are high, the selling price of diesel cannot rise very high without raising food prices. This tends to keep the prices of heavy crude oils below those for lighter crude oils.
Many people believe that the high level of “Proved Oil Reserves” worldwide makes it certain that businesses can extract as much oil as they would like in the future. A major issue is whether these reserves mean as much as people assume they do. Oil reserves of OECD countries (an association of the US and other rich countries) are likely to be audited, but reserves of other countries may not be. Asking a relatively poor oil-exporting country the amount of its oil reserves is like asking the country how wealthy it is. We should not be surprised by fibbing on the high side. The problem is that the vast majority of reported oil reserves (85%) are held by non-OECD countries. These reserves may be significantly overstated.
Also, even if the reserves are fairly reported, will the country have the resources to extract these reserves? Venezuela reports the highest oil reserves in the world thanks to its heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt, but it extracts a relatively small amount per year. An October 2022 article says that the country is waiting for foreign investment to expand production.
Going forward, oil companies everywhere need to worry about broken supply lines for necessary items, such as steel drilling pipe. They need to worry about finding enough trained workers. They need to worry about the availability of debt and the interest rate that will be charged for this debt. If private oil companies look at the true prospects and find them too bleak, they will likely use their profits to buy back the shares of their own oil companies instead (as is happening now).
[2] While oil producers can crack heavy oil to make shorter hydrocarbons in a way that is not terribly expensive, trying to make near-gasses and light oils into diesel becomes impossibly expensive.
It is easy for people to assume that any part of the oil mix is substitutable for another part, but this is not true. Cracking long hydrocarbon chains works to make shorter chains, but the economics tend not to work in the other direction. Thus, it is not economically feasible to make gasoline into diesel (which is heavier), or natural gas liquids into diesel.
[3] If there is inadequate oil supply, the impacts on the economy are likely to include broken supply lines, empty shelves, and inflation in the price of goods that are available.
If there is not enough oil to go around, some users must be left out. The result is that some of the less profitable consumers of oil may file for bankruptcy. For example, the Wall Street Journal recently reported Trucking Giant Yellow Shuts Down Operations. This bankruptcy makes it impossible for some stores to get the merchandise that would normally be on their shelves. As a consequence, it makes it likely that some replacement parts for automobiles will not be available when needed. There is a workaround of renting another vehicle while a person’s car is waiting for repairs, but this adds to total costs.
This workaround illustrates how a lack of adequate oil can indirectly lead to higher overall costs, even if the oil itself is not higher-priced. The need to work around supply line problems tends to lead to inflation in the prices of goods that continue to be available.
[4] The fact that the quantity of oil that could be affordably extracted was likely to fall short about now has been known for a very long time, but this fact has been hidden from the public.
In 1957, Hyman Rickover of the US navy predicted that the amount of affordable fossil fuels would fall short between 2000 and 2050, with the amount of oil falling short earlier than coal and natural gas.
The book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, published in 1972, discusses the result of early modeling efforts with respect to resource limits. These resource limits were very broadly defined, including minerals such as copper and lithium in addition to fossil fuels. A range of indications were produced, but the base model (based on business as usual) seemed to show limits hitting before 2030 (Figure 1).
Since the resource limits include minerals of all types, these limits would seem to preclude a transition to clean energy and electric cars.
Educators, advertisers, and political leaders could see that discussing the oil problem would cause economic suicide. What would be the point of buying a car, if a person couldn’t use it for very long? Educators felt that students needed to be guided in the direction of hoped-for solutions, no matter how remote they might be, if university programs were to remain open.
Politicians and government officials wanted to keep voters happy, so the self-organizing economy pushed them in the direction of keeping the story from the public. They tended to focus on climate issues instead. They added biofuels to stretch the supply of gasoline, and to a lesser extent, diesel. They also increased the share of natural gas liquids. The selling price of these liquids tends to be quite low, relative to the price of crude oil.
They started providing reports showing “all liquids” rather than “crude oil,” in the hope that people wouldn’t notice the change in mix.
[5] The world’s number one problem today seems to be an inadequate supply of Middle Distillates. These provide diesel and jet fuel.
Diesel and jet fuel provide the big bursts of power that commercial equipment requires. Many types of equipment are dependent on Middle Distillates, including semi-trucks, agricultural equipment, ocean-going ships, jet planes, road-making equipment, school buses, and trains operating in areas with steep inclines.
Because of its concentrated store of energy, diesel is also used to operate backup generators and to provide electricity in remote areas of the world where it would be impractical to have year-round electricity without an easily stored fuel.
In Figure 3:
- Light Distillates are primarily gasoline (78% in 2022).
- Middle Distillates are diesel (82%) and jet fuel/kerosene (18%).
- Fuel Oil is a cheap, polluting, unrefined product. If environmental laws permit, it can be burned as bunker fuel (used in ships), as boiler fuel, or to provide electricity.
- The Other category includes near-gasses such as ethane, propane, and butane (58%). It also includes some very heavy oil used as lubricants, asphalt, or feedstocks for petrochemicals.
Until recently, it has been possible to increase diesel production by refining an added share of Fuel Oil. Fuel oil is quite heavy (barely a liquid), so it is well-suited to be refined into a mix that includes a large share of Middle Distillates.
Now we are running short of Fuel Oil to refine for the purpose of producing more Middle Distillates. The Fuel Oil that is still consumed is used in what I think of as the poorer countries of the world: the non-OECD countries (Figure 4).
Poor countries tend to value “low price” over “prevents pollution.” It is likely to be difficult to get these countries to move away from the use of Fuel Oil.
[6] Countries around the world are now competing for Middle Distillates to maintain the food production, road building, commercial transportation, and construction portions of their economies.
Figure 5 shows that since about 1983, consumption per capita for both Light Distillates and Middle Distillates has been generally slightly growing. Growth in usage tends to be higher for Middle Distillates than Light Distillates. The total quantity consumed is also higher for Middle Distillates.
The dip in consumption per capita in 2020 is much more pronounced for Middle Distillates than Light Distillates. For Middle Distillates, the change from 2018 to 2020 is -16%; the change from 2018 to 2022 is -7%. The corresponding changes for Light Distillates are -11% and -4%.
The difference in patterns in Light Distillates and Middle Distillates is not surprising: Gasoline, the main product of Light Distillates, has been the focus of efficiency changes. It is also possible to dilute gasoline with ethanol, made from corn. Voters in the US are particularly aware of gasoline availability and price, so politicians tend to focus on it.
Diesel and jet fuel, made using Middle Distillates, are less on the minds of voters, but they are probably more important to the economy because people’s jobs depend upon the economy in its current form holding together. Inadequate Middle Distillates leaves empty shelves in stores because of broken supply lines. It also leads to inflation of the type we have recently been experiencing. Indirectly, lack of Middle Distillates can lead to debt bubbles collapsing, and to problems of a different type than inflation.
Up until 2007, Middle Distillate consumption was generally increasing for both OECD countries and non-OECD countries. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 particularly affected OECD countries. European countries found their economies doing less well. For example, less diesel was used to operate tour boats carrying tourists; a larger share of available jobs were low-paid service jobs.
The year 2013 was a turning point of a different type. The consumption of non-OECD countries caught up with that of OECD countries. While non-OECD countries might like to maintain their rapid upward trajectory in the consumption of Middle Distillates, this no longer seems to be possible.
[7] Under the Maximum Power Principle, the physics of the economy pushes the economy toward optimal low-cost solutions, especially as the quantity of Middle Distillates approaches limits.
The economy, like every other ecosystem, operates under the principle of “survival of the best adapted.” In terms of the sale of goods, this means that the lowest-priced goods will tend to win out in a competitive environment, provided that they are of adequate quality and that the makers can earn an adequate profit in making them.
Furthermore, the makers of the goods must earn a high enough profit both for reinvestment and to pay adequate taxes to their governments. Payments of taxes to governments are essential; otherwise governmental collapse would occur due to the growing debt that cannot be repaid.
If inflation becomes a problem, rising interest rates would tend to push governments with large amounts of debt toward collapse because they would become unable even to make interest payments from current income.
In this self-organizing economy, buyers of goods don’t know or care much about the lives of the workers in the system. Optimal low costs of manufacturing in a world market might mean:
- Manufacturers have access to very inexpensive energy sources and use them.
- Pollution control is ignored to the maximum extent possible, without serious harm to the workers.
- Governments provide very little in the way of benefits to citizens, such as health care or pensions, keeping the cost of government low.
- Workers can get along on relatively low salaries because little heating or cooling of homes is needed.
- Workers don’t expect private vehicles, recreational activities, or advanced medical care.
Because the economy favors the lowest cost of profitable production, a person would expect that warm countries that use oil sparingly in their energy mix (India, the Philippines, and Vietnam, for example) would have a competitive edge over other countries in manufacturing.
In general, a person would expect non-OECD countries to outcompete OECD countries, especially if cheap fuel for manufacturing is available. The lack of cheap fuel is increasingly becoming a problem in many parts of the world. Coal used to be cheap, but its price can now spike. Natural gas prices can also spike, especially if natural gas is purchased without a long-term contract. Electricity using wind and solar tends to be high-priced, too, when the cost of transmission is included.
[8] The Maximum Power Principle seems to be pushing the EU away from diesel.
The EU has a serious oil problem. It has essentially no crude oil production of its own. Furthermore, oil production in Europe outside of the EU (mainly the UK and Norway) has been falling since 1999, greatly reducing the possibility of imported oil from this area (Figure 7).
Under these circumstances, members of the EU found that they needed to import nearly all of their oil, and that most of this oil needed to come from outside Europe.
When I look at the data regarding the types of oil the EU has chosen to consume (nearly all imported), I find that it uses an oil mix that is unusually skewed toward Middle Distillates and away from Light Distillates. (Compare Figure 8 with Figure 3).
Part of the reason the EU uses this skewed oil mix is because it has encouraged the use of private passenger cars using diesel through its tax structure. Underlying this tax structure was most likely an understanding that Russia, through its exports of Urals Oil, which is heavy, could provide the EU with the mix of oil products it needed, including extra diesel.
The EU has recently cut off most oil imports from Russia as a way of punishing Russia. This cutoff is being phased in, with most of the impact in 2023 and later. Thus, Figure 8 (which is through 2022) shouldn’t be much affected.
China and India are now buying most of Russia’s exported oil. These countries tend to use the oil more “efficiently” than the EU. In particular, they do more manufacturing than the EU, and they have far fewer private passenger cars per capita than the EU. Furthermore, the EU powers quite a few of its private passenger cars with diesel. If diesel is in short supply, efficiency demands that it should be saved for uses that require it, such as powering heavy equipment.
Because of the efficiency issue, I doubt that the EU will be able to continue importing as high a diesel mix in the future as it has been importing up to now. We know that Saudi Arabia cut back its oil exports by 1 million barrels per day, as of July 1, and this cutback is continuing into August. Russia is also cutting its production by 500,000 barrels a day, effective August 1. If oil prices rise again, I wonder whether the EU will be forced to cut back on its oil imports, essentially because of the Maximum Power Principle.
[9] The substitution of electricity for oil so far has been mostly in the direction of replacing gasoline usage for private passenger automobiles. Substitution of electricity for Middle Distillates would be virtually impossible.
Middle Distillates are largely used for the tough jobs–jobs that require big bursts of power. Electricity and the battery storage required for electricity are not adapted to these tough jobs. The vehicles become too heavy, especially when the big battery packs that would be required are considered. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that battery-powered commercial trucks can cost more than three times the price of diesel-powered trucks, a hurdle much smaller private passenger automobiles don’t face. The wide diversity of types of heavy commercial vehicles would be another huge hurdle in trying to substitute electricity for diesel.
Oil is a mixture of different hydrocarbon lengths. Substitution of electricity for one part of the hydrocarbon mix, namely for the Light Distillates, is not very helpful. Oil companies need to be able to sell all parts of the mix in order to make their extraction efforts worthwhile. If oil companies find themselves without buyers for most Light Distillates, they would have difficulty recouping their overall costs. There would be a possibility of oil production stopping. Without oil, farming would mostly stop. Road repair would stop. Today’s economy would come to a halt.
Of course, as a practical matter, the vast majority of the world will pay no attention to mandates that all private passenger automobiles be EVs. Buyers in most parts of the world will make decisions based on which cars are least expensive to own and operate. As a result, there is little chance of private passenger cars being completely replaced by EVs. Instead, EV mandates in some countries may somewhat reduce the selling price of gasoline worldwide because these drivers are no longer using gasoline. With lower gasoline prices, non-EV’s are likely to become cheaper to operate in countries where they are permitted, boosting their sales. This is an effect similar to Jevons Paradox.
[10] There are many related topics that could be addressed, but they will need to wait until later posts.
A few of samples of other issues:
[a] The world economy is tightly networked together. Inadequate oil supplies per capita tend to push the economy toward forced reduced activity, as was the case in 2020. Oil prices likely won’t rise a whole lot higher, for very long, if the economy is forced to shrink.
[b] Inadequate oil supplies per capita also tend to cause fighting among countries. OECD countries seem to over consume, relative to the benefits they provide to the rest of the world. Perhaps some grouping of non-OECD countries (or parts of countries) will take over in leadership roles.
[c] The self-organizing economy has different priorities than human leaders. All ecosystems in a finite world go through cycles. As conditions change, different species are favored, and new species emerge. Humans have a strong preference for recent conditions that helped humans thrive. Humans need a religion to follow, so leaders have created environmental sin to replace original sin. The catch is that ecosystems are built for change. Pollution can be viewed as a type of fertilizer for different types of species or recent mutations to thrive. Higher temperatures will have a net favorable effect for some organisms.
[d] If a local economy chooses to increase energy costs by taking steps to reduce its carbon footprint, the main impact may be to disadvantage the local economy relative to the world economy. If total energy costs are higher, the cost of finished goods and services is likely to be higher, making the economy less competitive.
[e] I expect that the members of the EU and other rich nations will be the primary countries pursuing carbon reduction technologies. Poorer economies may pay lip service to carbon reduction, but they will tend to focus primarily on increasing the welfare of their own people, whether or not this requires more carbon.
For example, in 2022, China accounted for 66% of global EV sales (5.0 million out of 7.7 million), thanks to subsidies that China made available. China no doubt had many motives, but one of them would seem to be to stimulate the economy. Another motive would be to increase the total number of vehicles in operation. The majority (61%) of electricity generation in China in 2022 was provided by electricity coming from coal-fired power plants, based on information from the Energy Institute. I would expect that more Chinese vehicles manufactured and placed into operation plus more use of electricity from coal would lead to a greater quantity of carbon emissions, rather than a smaller quantity.
a big shoutout to those who recently predicted BAU until about 2050, and up to 2070 in Russia.
that’s called analyses, not imagination.
Yo Eddie..
India becomes fourth country to land a spacecraft on the moon
The lander and rover will be functional for about two weeks.
ByMary Kekatos
August 23, 2023, 11:37 AM
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) launched the mission, known as Chandrayaan-3, in mid-July, with the spacecraft traveling a forty-day, fuel-efficient course before touching down at 8:34 a.m. ET.
India now joins the U.S., Russia and China as the only countries to successfully land a spacecraft on the lunar surface.
“Chandrayaan-3 Mission: ‘India, I reached my destination and you too!” the ISRO announced upon touchdown. “Chandrayaan-3 has successfully soft-landed on the moon!”
NASA has previously announced that for its Artemis II missions, which will send American astronauts back to the moon, it is also looking to reach the lunar south pole.
In June, when Indian Prime Minister Modi visited the U.S., he and President Joe Biden issued a joint statement hailing the countries’ relationship and their collaboration in several fields, including space.
In the statement, NASA announced it will provide training to Indian astronauts at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas, “with a goal of mounting a joint effort to the International Space Station in 2024.”
How about that Sir Greatness…lol
landing a dozen astronauts on the moon was quite cool.
but in the grand scheme of things, it was quite pathhetic if that was the pinnacle of human achievement.
dave,
We are not done yet, the best is yet to come.
I have come across some “science” videos regarding the human brain; serious thinkers seem to think it might be quantum mechanical, that implies entanglement.
Serious discussion is also going on regarding the universe and whether it is real or not, entanglement again. If so, we are more part of the universe than we think and our very observation of it has an effect on reality.
This is consistent with much human religion which has many similarities across cultures.
My guess: Things are not always as they appear. The ancients brushed off bad luck as God’s will, we brood; I am not immune to that. I have had wonderful luck, but not perfect luck; I spend more time on the imperfect but am also always grateful for the good luck. We humans are so difficult.
Dennis L.
Battle in the Heavens between Our Lord FE and the All Powerful Ravana.
Ravana and the Van Allen Belts?
“Ravana was a powerful king of demons with twenty hands and ten heads. He was considered as the most dreadful creature of the universe who can even change the planetary alignments.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/another-downward-revision-bls-confirms-us-payrolls-least-306000-lower-previously-reported
Another Downward Revision: BLS Confirms US Payrolls At Least 306,000 Lower Than Previously Reported
“… nothing more than a figment in the BLS’s imagination…”
there’s that imagination thing again.
“… will be revised down by at least 306,000 and likely much more when the final revisions take place in early 2024.”
VERY likely.
Florida And Climate Change
Climate change is impacting so much around us: heat, flooding, health, wildlife, housing, and more. WUSF, in collaboration with the Florida Climate Reporting Network, is bringing you stories on how climate change is affecting you.
Florida researchers are developing a new app in Pinellas County to determine localized climate risks
WUSF Public Media – WUSF 89.7 | By Jessica Meszaros
Published August 22, 2023 at 7:38 AM EDT
Map of Pinellas County with a black backdrop and color-coded to show various environmental and hazardous factors.
USF’s Community Resiliency Information Systems map in Pinellas County.
“To solve the problem of flooding and climate-related disasters, and make community resilient, we need to figure it out how to connect the people with the decision maker,” said USF’s Barnali Dixon.
Pinellas County residents will soon get an app to identify their climate risks.
The National Science Foundation awarded researchers at the University of South Florida and Georgia Tech $1.5 million to create the web-based system.
Pinellas residents will be able to upload photos and videos of things like local flooding, and the app will use each image’s geotag to log the location.
The system will combine the community crowdsourced data with near real-time data on flooding. It will estimate water elevation for flood models to then inform emergency managers and policymakers.
Dr. Barnali Dixon is a USF professor at the School of Geosciences, the Director of the Geospatial Analytics Lab, and the Executive Director and PI for the Initiative on Coastal Adaptation and Resilience.
Dr. Barnali Dixon is a USF professor at the School of Geosciences, the director of the Geospatial Analytics Lab, and the executive director and PI for the Initiative on Coastal Adaptation and Resilience.
“To solve the problem of flooding and climate-related disasters, and make community resilient, we need to figure it out how to connect the people with the decision maker, so appropriate resources and information can be distributed,” said USF St. Petersburg geographic information systems professor Barnali Dixon, who’s leading the team.
The new app is based off a web-based platform created in 2020 by USF called Community Resiliency Information System, or CRIS.
Dixon and her team piloted CRIS in St. Petersburg’s Childs Park neighborhood to prepare for extreme storm events.
“We actually ran around and mapped all of the storm drains that were clogged,” Dixon said.
“We started out with South St. Pete,” Dixon said. “And we have done air quality sensors. And we also do lots of environmental hazards, for example, where are the brownfields, right? Where are the food deserts? Where are the needs, essentially, that are hidden so we can expose it?”
On the CRIS website, participants can currently use maps to see their risk of storm surge and sea level rise. They can also share their own information and suggest ways to improve the system.
“We have used the application at all our community town halls,” said Erica Hall, executive director of the Florida Food Policy Council, in a news release.
“As a community leader and liaison, this will help communities tremendously to understand the connection between sea level rise, climate change, extreme heat and coastal flooding. Some coastally vulnerable neighborhoods also show food insecurity, health disparities and environmental justice concerns. Having CRIS map those concerns tells a story that will allow the community to understand.”
Silly people….like this will change the outcome ….like Gail has pointed out numerous times….we are NOT in control….provides comfort and jobs to some I suppose
These financial grants help funding of universities. They keep hope alive. Young people feel like they are doing something important, whether it is true or not. If what they are doing is appreciated by some people, that is sufficient.
many times in prehistory, much/most of the land which is now called Florida was below sea level.
My grandfathers from early experience exercised some light authoritarianism by forbidding annyone to build near water or to buy Japenese cars. One of them lived in 13 different places including a tight valley called Johnny Cake Chute while his Dad logged off Tupper Lake region. The other one had his brother killed as a prisoner in a WW2 Death March. His other brother died fair n’ square in combat in Vulturno Italy so we were free to buy various Fiats.
Two items that I saw yesterday.
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Nearly all ethnic groups in Britain do better at school than white British. They are about 38% of schoolkids now, and it is good to see them doing well. EU kids in Britain do about the same as white British.
See the results table as an image: https://i0.wp.com/revisesociology.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ethnicity-educational-achievement.png
Average Attainment 8 score (out of 90.0) by ethnicity
All 50.9
Asian 55.8
Bangladeshi 55.6
Indian 62.0
Pakistani 50.5
Asian other 58.6
Black 50.0
Black African 52.2
Black Caribbean 44.0
Black other 48.3
Chinese 69.2
Mixed 51.3
Mixed White/Asian 56.2
Mixed White/Black African 50.6
Mixed White/Black Caribbean 45.0
Mixed other 53.0
White 50.2
White British 50.2
White Irish 55.7
Gypsy/Roma 22.7
Irish Traveller 30.7
White other 52.1
Other 51.7
Unknown 45.1
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/education-skills-and-training/11-to-16-years-old/gcse-results-attainment-8-for-children-aged-14-to-16-key-stage-4/latest#by-ethnicity
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Some who voted for Brexit did so because of immigration, but the actual result of Brexit has not been to reduce immigration but to shift it away from EU sources and toward the rest of the world. Moreover, it tends to be more high skilled workers with higher educational background who come now rather than EU workers. Presumably the lower skilled jobs will have to be filled locally.
Non-EU migration has risen to around 700,000 net per year while EU migration has actually gone into reverse: https://cf.eip.telegraph.co.uk/illustrator-embed/content/ca99e25b54a930f97d17c02a07d18c98fa500a20/1689949817759.jpg
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/22/foreign-interest-uk-jobs-outstrips-eu-brexit-immigration/
https://archive.ph/Rs7rv
Foreign interest in UK jobs outstrips EU after post-Brexit immigration overhaul
New system is encouraging interest from applicants in places like Nigeria, India and South Africa
Britain’s post-Brexit immigration system has helped make the country even more attractive to foreign workers than the European Union, according to job site Indeed.
The Government introduced a new point-based immigration system in January 2021, which has effectively made it easier for people from outside the EU to work in the UK.
Pawel Adrjan from the recruitment website said: “The UK government’s new immigration policy is operating as intended, with requirements for non-EU workers generally easing after Brexit.”
The types of jobs overseas workers are looking for has also changed.
Mr Adrjan said: “There is a shift towards non-European interest in higher skilled jobs such as software development in the UK and away from lower skilled roles European workers had previously taken.”
Since overhauling its immigration policies, the British Government has gradually expanded a list of shortage occupations, making it easier for software developers, care workers and even ballet dancers to immigrate.
However, the biggest increase in interest has been for social workers and home carers. More than 9 in 100 views on these job postings are from overseas workers, up from roughly 2 in 100 before the pandemic.
The interest is particularly strong from people in Nigeria, India and South Africa.
Net immigration to Britain reached a record high of 606,000 people in 2022, mainly driven by arrivals from outside the EU.
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So, the workforce is not only expanded but improved in its skills and educational background.
Your list of attainment scores by ethnic group suggest that Gypsy/Roma and Irish Traveller are especially low.
From what I have seen (limited) Traveller kids tend to live in tight knit communities in which the kids sometimes spend a lot of time off school; schools are obligatory but they are sometimes not engaged with in the usual way. As I say, my experience is limited and I am not an authority on Traveller culture. No one is suggesting that they have a lower ability for attainment.
So what kind of ethnic are you, MOTW?
I identify as white English, but white is a too simplistic term, of course. If I woke up one morning and found that I had turned white, I would probably die of shock.
I am not sure that I am particularly any ethnic in general demographic terms although it depends how fine the analysis is taken as is true of all of us.
I tend not to demographically categorise myself on the web or one stops being an individual person and functions as a crude demographic category.
The web is not necessarily the most nuanced place without real life interaction and the bluntest categories can take over reality in interactions.
I try to avoid thinking of persons on here as ethnic categories as we all know that is a way too simplistic way to approach other people and we would not do that in real life.
People can seem intangible and unknowable on the web and it can encourage a crude approach to apprehension of who people ‘are’.
The crudest ethnic or cultural ‘markers’ can over in an unreal way.
Encourage the Chinese to move to UK.
China’s ancient water pipes show people mastered complex engineering 4,000 years ago without the need for a centralized state authority
https://arkeonews.net/chinas-ancient-water-pipes-show-people-mastered-complex-engineering-4000-years-ago-without-the-need-for-a-centralized-state-authority/
system of ancient ceramic water pipes, the oldest ever unearthed in China, shows that neolithic people were capable of complex engineering feats without the need for centralized state authority, finds a new study by University College London (UCL) and Peking University researchers.
The findings are described in a study published August 14 in the journal Nature Water.
study, the archaeological team describes a network of ceramic water pipes and drainage ditches at the Chinese walled site of Pingliangtai dating back 4,000 years to a time known as the Longshan period (from about 2600 to 2000 BCE).
The Pingliangtai town was home to roughly 500 people during Neolithic times and had protective walls and a surrounding moat. It sits on the Upper Huai River Plain on the vast Huanghuaihai Plain, and the climate 4,000 years ago saw large seasonal climate shifts. Summer monsoons could dump a foot and a half of rain on the region every month.
With all this rain, it was critical for the region to manage floodwaters. The people of Pingliangtai appear to have built and operated a two-tier drainage system to help mitigate the rainy season’s excessive rainfall. Simple but coordinated lines of drainage ditches ran parallel to the rows of houses to divert water from the residential area to a series of ceramic water pipes that carried the water into the surrounding moat, and away from the village.
The team suggests that this network of pipes shows that the community cooperated with one another to build and maintain this drainage
Very advanced..right Klmmie?
There are a lot of amazing things to see in China. China used coal to make iron many years ago, but they didn’t develop industry around it early on. I saw a set of bells in Wuhan tuned to the scale Westerners are used to from 433 BCE.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/reproduction-of-ancient-bells-in-museum-at-wuhan.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bianzhong_of_Marquis_Yi_of_Zeng
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xD31cxbQcRQ
Dr Anas, Oil Expert, Exposes Misinformation in Energy Markets With Data Driven Facts! Ep.88
The RO Show
Looming Energy Crisis
00:03:57 – Africa’s Green Energy Leadership
00:07:52 – The Impact of Divestment on Climate Change
00:11:47 – The Role of Oil in Power Generation
00:15:23 – Exaggeration in Reporting Oil Demand
00:18:46 – Limitations of Democracy and Job Prospects for Young Academics
00:22:16 – Understanding Industry Dependency
00:25:55 – The Failure of Sanctions
00:29:45 – The Political Gains of the Shale Revolution
00:33:27 – The Impact of Sanctions on Putin
00:37:15 – Biden Administration’s Price Cap Decision
00:41:00 – Changing Views on the SPR
00:44:39 – The Benefits of Releasing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
00:48:10 – The Importance of Medium and Shower Crude
00:51:37 – Consequences of OPEC’s Decision
00:55:13 – The Future of the Market in 2024
00:58:59 – The Changing Narrative in the Oil Market
01:02:51 – Demand Instruction and the Elasticity of Substitutes
01:06:27 – The Advantages of Hydrogen as a Battery
01:09:47 – Increase in Demand for Oil and Gas
01:13:24 – The Substitution of Energy Sources
01:16:55 – The Reality of the Energy Transition
01:20:29 – The Need for Transition to Renewable Energy
01:24:15 – Energy Generation Statistics in Different Countries
01:27:47 – The Impending Energy Crisis
01:31:35 – The Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Oil and Gas Industry
I looked at the introduction, and the video does sound worthwhile. Without looking at the video, I can’t imagine what “The Advantages of Hydrogen as a Battery” might be.
Inflation/deflation:
Disclaimer, we seek affirmation, not information.
Wolf gives evidence housing prices are declining.
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/08/22/home-sales-plunge-further-as-demand-vanished-at-these-prices-even-cash-buyers-pull-back-supply-keeps-rising/
Houses are no longer affordable, there are plenty available, but like oil, too expensive to use. Location is also a problem, some say there are excess homes available in China.
Stuff is getting too expensive, services, e.g. insurance are going through the roof.
Dennis L.
Two more insurance companies pull out of California
By: Lauren Cooper Aug 22, 2023 Updated 11 hrs ago 8
BUTTE COUNTY, Calif. – Six insurance companies have already decided to limit or no longer renew policies for California homeowners and businesses.
Some of these companies have stated increased wildfire risk and expensive rebuild costs as the main reason.
Many homeowners are concerned about how this could impact their rates or affect the market for new homebuyers.
“If you can’t get insurance in this state then why would you want to buy a house,” said Chico homeowner Sheri Pybas.
Pybas said California’s Proposition 103 could also be why insurance companies are pulling out.
“It could possibly be difficult but I don’t understand why they can keep offering insurance companies in places like Florida that seem to wash away with a hurricane every year. They just charge the appropriate amount. That’s what it seems like,” Pybas said.
…..McCarthy said about 80% of his clients are sellers expressing interest in moving away from California because of a lack of insurance options and inflation.
He told Action News Now he deals with insurance issues a lot and many people are now having to resort to the California Fair Plan.
The California Fair Plan provides basic fire insurance to homes in wildfire-risk areas when other companies won’t.
McCarthy said many people getting this insurance are not living in wildfire risk zones. They just don’t have any other options.
Falls Lake said it will stop issuing renewals as of September, and AmGUARD will stop renewing policies in November.
Insurance companies can see that they will not be allowed to charge for the “real” cost of insurance, so they stop selling coverage in California.
And I Florida too….heard from a co worker that he paid off his house…so he is replacing a mortgage with an insurance payment…says there is no way he can retire ever…..at 60 years old…had 7 children….pension is not indexed to inflation and 401k is not much..
Cost of living keeps rising and his children are discouraged
It is getting close to the end. Thoughts gathered from here.
The universe is a computer and it is self organizing. Our brains may well be quantum computers, thus we communicate with the fabric of the universe through action at a distance or entanglement. Some claim that is instantaneous, or we are one with the universe.
It has taken a universe to make us, not an easy project. Humans are wonderful as well as problematical, it is an 80/20 rule. Looks like the jabs might be an error on our part, we will get the 20 that makes it all work and “cancel” the rest.
Our brains being a quantum computer implies machine learning is not a problem, it can mimic, but it is not sufficient for more.
Starship makes it possible, do quantum computing in space, a reflector for energy on one side and an instant 2.73 degrees Kelvin on the other.
First “product” of Starship will be He, we grow short of it on earth and it is non polluting, simply release waste and it floats back to space. MRI’s need it, humans need it, it is high value and perhaps one can help cool Starship returning to earth by boiling some of it off.
If this is close to correct, we are not in a simulation, we are the simulation. To get to our point, it takes a universe and energy beyond our wildest dreams. Energy is information and we are very complex.
Guess: Entanglement is how we evolve from an egg, there must be communication, failure to communicate is also cancer. The jab is screwing with communication and does someone have an idea how the first ribosome came into existence?
Dennis L
Thanks! I think you are right about, “To get to our point, it takes a universe and energy beyond our wildest dreams.”
We cannot understand how complexity has been built over the years, and how the cutback in energy supplies (ostensibly to stop the spread of covid) starts undoing the complexity. Nate Hagens talks about The Great Simplification.
It is hard to understand where this is all going. Evolution seems to work in cycles. As a dissipative structure, the ecosystem we are part of seems likely to continue to dissipate energy far into the future, whether or not more CO2 is formed as a result.
The Führer in the Bunker is a meme that keeps giving. This time, he’s lamenting the failure of the vax program.
I’m a desvirologist and i approve this message.
I luv a good Hit-ler parody video. Notice how it’s not on Youtube? They wouldn’t allow that.
I laughed out loud at the “If you were dumb enough” moment. The rest went on a bit, though. Good of der Fewrer to let us see it, anyway, when YT won’t. If only we didn’t have to live under a dictatorship. 🙁
I think we should compromise on the masks.
Masks for fall and winter.
No mask for spring and summer.
The anti-mask side will never be able to overcome the media and authorities. If someone like Tom Hanks wears a mask on TV. All your objections and evidence are neutered.
I think this is the smartest move…
I think you need help.
“If you don’t become the ocean, you’ll be seasick every day.”
― Leonard Cohen
We’re lost in a masquerade.
I think we should do Masking Mondays similar to Taco Tuesdays. That way it will be easy to remember and who can complain if it’s just 1 day of the week to flatten the curve?
I am so sorry for all of you, specially for my family of course but in general for all the west, who will be locked into your own home all winter.
Yeah… were not going to do that. Masks are a propaganda device, and nothing more.
norm keith…
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffbd2cb97-14cc-4837-85f9-9cea59e9cd58_1468x892.png
https://theviraldelusion.substack.com/p/the-great-lie-and-the-data-that-shows
In New York, lots of people who had been in the hospital with covid were sent to nursing homes to recover, while still infectious. Because of this decision, there was a huge spike in nursing home covid cases and deaths.
Same process was followed in Italy (following protocols..)
Please, it will surely be just a case (…), but it is strange that most of the Covid protocols actually led to tragic outcomes…
O… M… F789ing….G….
https://theviraldelusion.substack.com/p/the-great-lie-and-the-data-that-shows
Click this norm keith:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F188a6e15-a833-4217-9ed7-78055501e692_1125x1252.jpeg
As per CTG … if you do not see that this is mass murder… then … well… there is seriously something wrong with both of you
A GOOD DEATH? THE MIDAZOLAM MURDERS
https://www.bitchute.com/video/TFwJLG4SVbPk
COVID-19: THE MIDAZOLAM MURDERS
https://www.bitchute.com/video/pLNjJ2Ee45zV
This gives me hope that we will be offered Super Fent
An odd definition of ‘hope’, FE! But this the early 21st century, so……..
That chart should be an eye opener. Unfortunately normies don’t usually use their eyes to see, preferring to do it through the media.
Huge spike in Midazolam use at the time of spike in “covid deaths” in UK in 2020. Midazolam is known for causing death.
It always amazes me that people can just shut off and look the other way in the face of damning facts. It is totally impossible for me to do it. Perhaps I am the odd one out? Or perhaps it is the simulation trying to insert characters that are like NPCs.
We see that from norm-keith just about every single day on OFW …
That is what leads me to believe this is a programmed simulation … how can it be possible that this is happening?
Our brains have evolved, mainly, to guide us to satisfying opportunities to eat and copulate, and seek out an environment in which we believe we can rear young until they can repeat the whole cycle themselves.
Also, of course, to detect and avoid mortal danger: but there seems to be a kind of automatic cut-off mechanism if the danger is too great, too destabilising to contemplate.
Mass murder and poisoning by the state/corporations/Big Pharma, is one such, simply too frightening for most people to ever look in the face.
I experienced this regarding air pollution here: while I was gasping and on the road to an early death, and could point to meteorological charts which made prediction of high pollution episodes straighforward, people would just look blank and say ‘Cambridge isn’t polluted: it must be something else!’ Or even ‘Are you sure it’s air pollution?’ And more than a few hints that it was all in my head…..
But when it was reported on the BBC, they said ‘Hey, you were right after all!’ The though of breathing heavily polluted air , which looked clean, everyday was too much for them, so it was dismissed.
Imbeciles. This is just how they are reacting to the vaxx deaths, and this is why, like Norm-Keith they won’t even deign to look at the figure – as for instance on Prof Norman Fenton’s SS.
I will assume my links to the Smoking Gun are being held .. as that is the biggest story since this whole thing started…
Search: Substack Mike Wallach: The Viral Delusion
read: The Great Lie And The Data That Shows It
This is explosive stuff…
Most people are not part of the reality-based community. That’s why when the Empire creates its own reality, they lap it up. I guess we could call it “authoritative reality”. The Empire is well aware that perception beats real reality hands down.
Very few Chinese not from the border regions paid attention to the Manchus , especially those living in the southern regions, until the Manchus actually showed up with their pigtails
The presumption of any higher risk – intended or only condoned – may lead to the conclusion, that our societies are heavily corrupted and unable to deal with whatever difficulties may come. That is a disastrous insight – though it is within the expectations for the end of BAU. I can only understand all as a masking of the real oil problem to avoid panic.
The consequence is, we have to rely on ourselves.
I’ve just scanned a dozen or so cnnbbc sites including bbc and cnn…
And there is zero mention of Eris on the home pages…
Perhaps this Eris thing is just the PR Team running A Vaxxers around by the nose yet again…
That would be bad news — cuz that leaves the cannisters as the only option
More young women are getting breast cancer. They want answers.
“We have to get out of the idea of, ‘Hell, you’re young, it can’t happen to you.’ It does happen to young women, and clearly, it’s affecting their survival,” said Debra Monticciolo of Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center.
Kelsey Kaminky first noticed a small lump in her left breast in November. It felt like a misshapen marble. Given her young age, her doctor suspected it was a benign cyst and told her further testing wouldn’t be needed.
But Kaminky, 32, couldn’t shake a bad feeling. She insisted on getting a mammogram. “I advocated for myself because I knew, I just knew,” she said.
The lump was breast cancer.
It’s a rare diagnosis for women younger than 40, like Kaminky, who accounted for about 4 percent of invasive breast cancer diagnoses in the United States last year.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/08/22/breast-cancer-young-women-increase/
What could be causing this norm?
Poor Marianne. after getting no mortgage, breast cancer. charles dickens made millions out of these stories, why not you?
No point… we’ll all be dead soon…
smoking gun.. mass murder… https://theviraldelusion.substack.com/p/the-great-lie-and-the-data-that-shows
is this a link that you posted 3 times? I know those posted once are not worthy of a click.
There must be some wonder drug that will age people faster, so that they don’t get these terrible diseases of young people.
Their lives are literally flashing before their eyes!
Skipping all the good healthy years and going straight to the chronic and terminal illness phase
I am guessing that all of the hormones in food and water in the US could be causing this (birth control pills in the water supply, for example).
Also, the growing percentage of overweight young people. Breast cancer is more prevalent in the overweight population.
And another fire https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/84023
Former University of Houston Basketball Player, Dead at 23
He had recently signed a contract to play professionally in Greece, according to a report from WholeHogSports.
“It’s devastating news,” said former Razorbacks staffer Matt Zimmerman. “It breaks your heart that he’s passed away at such a young age. It seems like yesterday he came on his official visit.”
“I just can’t believe he’s gone already.”
https://resistthemainstream.com/former-university-of-houston-basketball-player-dead-at-23/
Long covid norm?
Jamie Lee Curtis Encourages Followers to Mask Up Again With COVID ‘On the Rise
Jamie Lee Curtis knows the power social media can yield, and that’s why she’s been using hers to issue PSAs on topics she believes are important.
“And we’re BAAAAACCCCKKKK. No, not Michael Myers but masking will be. COVID is on the rise. SO MANY friends now are really sick. BE MINDFUL. WEAR A MASK if required or even if you feel unwell and are out in public spaces.”
https://parade.com/news/jamie-lee-curtis-encourages-fans-mask-again-covid-strain-eg5
I suppose one would take advice on fellatio from a Hollywood actress, that would be reasonable; but health? I really don’t think so.
Clever comment.
Dennis L.
Hopefully we get another lockdown and some of the A Vaxxers unhinge this time…
The anti terrorist squads are standing by….
This would make good watchin.
I like to watch.
CORONAVIRUSIt’s Really Happening: Mask Mandates, Contact Tracing RE-IMPLEMENTED At Colleges, Offices
https://summit.news/2023/08/22/its-really-happening-mask-mandates-contact-tracing-re-implemented-at-colleges-offices/
People of color seem to be particularly paranoid about covid (perhaps because many Blacks in poor health died early in the epidemic here). Morris Brown is a university aimed at Black students. Perhaps the plan is to make the parents of those students attending more comfortable.
I have been reading articles the Atlanta local newspaper about the huge shortfall of on-campus dorms for the group of Black colleges in downtown Atlanta. Many students will need to find housing off campus. I would expect that quite a few of them will be taking public transport to the colleges. Trying to trace contracts in this environment would seem to be futile.
Global Funds Abandon China Blue Chips in $9.3 Billion Rout
Global investors have been shedding China’s blue-chip stocks in what’s been a record-selling streak, showing even the nation’s industry leaders are falling out of favor as a rout deepens.
Foreign investors sold 6.2 billion yuan ($851 million) of Kweichow Moutai Co. during Aug. 7-18, making China’s largest liquor maker the most heavily sold stock via trading links with Hong Kong. It was followed by 4.7 billion yuan of selling each for leading renewables stock LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. and major lender China Merchants Bank Co., according to the latest data on individual stocks available on Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-23/global-funds-abandon-china-blue-chips-in-9-3-billion-selloff?srnd=premium-asia
It sounds like foreign funds concentrated their buying of stocks in the top tier of Chinese stocks–the “Blue Chips,” so to speak. This concentrated buying sent the prices of these stocks up. Now, foreign funds see better opportunities elsewhere. They are backing out, sending share prices of these stocks down.
How are we doing on this? Some things are funny that really should not be.
> This graph shows that not only has humanity not succeeded in reducing emissions following warnings on climate change in the late 1980s and 90s, but the emissions have also grown substantially, and we have now emitted as much since 1990 as in all of history before that time.
https://ieep.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/graph1v2-to-scale-1536×882.jpg
https://ieep.eu/news/more-than-half-of-all-co2-emissions-since-1751-emitted-in-the-last-30-years/
This chart shows the story of CO2 emissions:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/OECD-and-Non-OECD-CO2-emissions-1024×614.png
The rich (OECD) nations decided to outsource manufacturing to the poor nations (non-OECD) nations of the world. There were many benefits of this:
(1) CO2 nations of rich nations would drop. This was the selling point of the change.
(2) The huge bypassed coal resources of poor nations could be accessed, to manufacture goods cheaply.
(3) Big companies in OECD countries could grow and expand from this change, as they became more international in scope.
(4) The cost of manufactured goods would likely drop, because of the low cost of coal, the low wages of workers overseas, and the lack of “benefits” (healthcare, pensions, short work week) that these workers receive.
(5) The problem of peak local fossil fuels could be avoided, by bringing in other producers.