No words, and no claims, appear too outrageous for the Australian gas lobby. Having lost its total control over the Australian federal government when the Coalition lost power last year (remember the gas-fired recovery?), it is ramping up its scare campaigns against the path to electrification.
The latest salvo is prompted by the Victoria state government’s welcome decision to ban gas appliances in new homes from the start of 2024.
The gas industry doesn’t like it because it means it can’t install gas networks in new suburbs which would then lock in a related return for decades to come, even if they do – as expected – become redundant.
And if new homes create more demand for electric appliances, then that will make it easier for existing homes to make the switch, and also quit the existing gas networks.
But the gas industry is nothing if not organised. One customer received a letter this week from the supplier of his gas heater, Seeley International, which included a raft of misleading claims, and outright lies.
The one that struck us most was the suggestion that the Victoria government’s decision would effectively break the grid, a meme that must be sticking because RenewEconomy has received emails from aggrieved punters, or possibly gas bots, saying much the same thing.
There are a couple of important points to be made here. Victoria has the biggest use of gas in the country because it is cold, and that means that gas is used mostly in winter. Right now there is plenty of capacity on the local grid in winter – peak demand averages around 2GW lower than the summer.
You would have to add a lot of electric heat pumps, convection stoves and even EVs in very rapid time to put pressure on the grid.
Indeed, in the most recent market forecast put out by the Australian Energy Market Operator, which operates both the electricity and gas networks, it said winter demand peaks are unlikely to overtake summer demand peaks for at least another decade, even with strong electrification scenarios.
If anything, electrification might help the grid, because it will address an emerging problem which goes to the other end of the scale – minimum demand.
Having all those electric appliances creating demand means that AEMO will not have to revert to switching off rooftop solar PV, as it has to do from time to time in other states.
Gavin Mooney posted the letter from Seeley International on his LinkedIn page, and because he is an expert in the energy transition, he knows his stuff and can see through the bollocks sent to him by his gas appliance supplier.
He cited a number of other problems with the Seeley letter:
For instance, Seeley says: “We wanted to…address recent concerns over the Victorian government’s short-sighted ban on new houses.”
Mooney writes that “it’s actually just the sort of decisive policy action we need.”
Seeley: “Given Victorian electricity comes from burning brown coal, gas is a much cleaner alternative and better for the environment.”
Not so. Mooney says brown coal is still over 50% of Victoria’s electricity, but this ignores the more than 40% that comes from renewables. And the government has a legislated target of 95 per cent renewables by 2035.
Seeley: “Constant, cosy performance. Ducted gas heating operates independently of how cold it gets outside.”
Mooney: “This is a dig at heat pumps, but it doesn’t get cold enough in Victoria for heat pumps to have any serious problems. They work fine in Scandinavia.”
Seeley: “The average cost to use gas in your home is less than half of what it costs to provide the same amount of energy when using electricity.”
Mooney: “This ignores the magic of a heat pump providing 3-4 times more heating than energy consumed.”
Seeley: “Gas is cleaner than the current alternatives.”
Mooney: “Simply not true, there are viable alternatives and Victoria is racing towards its target of 95% renewables by 2035.”
Seeley: “Reliable Energy Supply. Gas is not dependent on weather conditions.”
Mooney: “Renewables are variable, not unreliable. The variability is why we have to firm with energy storage and other measures.”
Seeley: “It’s expensive to switch from gas to electricity.”
Mooney: “There is an up front cost, but there are savings over the longer term.” See also this story that shows a typical home in Victoria can save 75% on the winter heating bills by switching from gas heating to heat-pump electric.
Seeley: “The renewable gas future is coming … Gas has a future. The gas industry is committed to decarbonising.”
Mooney: “If that were the case (the gas industry being committed to decarbonising), the gas industry would be encouraging electrification.”
Don’t expect it to stop there. Other sectors of the gas industry have warned that the government is about to ban the backyard BBQ, and have repeatedly warned about impending blackouts if households quit gas. And they get a lot of amplification on social media, and the Murdoch media too.
See more stories, features and podcasts on electrification on our newly launched sub-section SwitchedOn.
