The solar industry is installing new capacity at record volumes around the globe, causing leading energy research firm BloombergNEF to again increase its solar build forecast for 2023 to 413GW as module prices plumb record lows.
BloombergNEF (BNEF) reported earlier this year that 260GW of new solar capacity was installed in 2022, but its predictions for the current year have been blown out of the water, largely as a result of China, which is on track to build 240GW of new solar capacity this year on its own.
According to BNEF’s numbers, there are now 33 national markets across the globe installing at least 1GW each year.
There is a reported weakness in some markets in BNEF’s accounting, and could reflect something of a ‘hangover’ from demand being pulled forward into 2022 by the energy crisis, but demand is still well shy of production.
According to BNEF, total module capacity of Tier 1 manufacturers in 2023 is 839GW, leading to “severe” inventory buildup in Europe where some residential markets are slightly weather than in 2022 thanks in part to lower electricity prices.
Globally, BNEF reports that module prices are at their lowest level ever, reaching $US0.128 per watt in the third week of November.
“Nonetheless,” says BNEF, “most manufacturers plan to continue production, buoyed by strong cash positions, which allow them to play a game of chicken with their competitors over who will succumb to the pressure and exit the market first.”
By the end of the year, BNEF expects to see module prices in China drop to 1 yuan per watt or even lower, and between 12-12.5 US cents per watt in other markets without existing trade barriers.
